Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2015

July 29, 200319 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 29, 2003, 3:36 PM CDT for 19 counties in Arkansas; 22 counties in Oklahoma; 9 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 29, 2003, 3:36 PM CDT (20:36 UTC)
Expired
Jul 29, 2003, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 50 counties

Clark County, AR, Columbia County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hempstead County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Howard County, AR, Lafayette County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Nevada County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Pike County, AR, Polk County, AR, Scott County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Coal County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Clay County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Delta County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX, Red River County, TX

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Shreveport, LA (KSHV), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 180 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-07-29Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1223 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Shreveport, LA at 12:00Z on 2003-07-29The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 8 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1223 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-90 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1251 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
8 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

819 
ACUS11 KWNS 292036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292036 
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-292300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...WRN AR...EXTREME NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 292036Z - 292300Z

ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.  A WW IS NOT EXPECTED.

STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN
OK.  THERMAL AXIS HAS DEVELOPED WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES OF
100-105 F...AND DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED OUT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S F. ANY STORMS WILL THEREFORE HAVE A CHANCE AT LOCALLY DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS DUE TO LARGE EVAPORATION POTENTIAL. STORMS WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED THOUGH DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS. FURTHER EAST
INTO WRN AR...STORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
INSTABILITY IS BEING MAXIMIZED HERE AS SURFACE THERMAL AXIS
INTERSECTS MOIST AXIS. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND INSTABILITY IN
WRN AR WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 07/29/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

33049304 34289226 36009512 33689854

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 28, 10:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi3 hr
Jul 29, 10:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChicot, Desha, Drew2 hr
Jul 29, 5:38 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCMississippi2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.