Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 2001

July 27, 200320 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 27, 2003, 4:31 PM EDT for 20 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 27, 2003, 4:31 PM EDT (20:31 UTC)
Expired
Jul 27, 2003, 6:00 PM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Blair County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Huntingdon County, PA, Juniata County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, Mifflin County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Snyder County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Union County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 236 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2003-07-27Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2003-07-27The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1565 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
102 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

542 
ACUS11 KWNS 272031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272031 
PAZ000-272200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 272031Z - 272200Z

EXPECT THREAT FROM STRONG CONVECTIVE WINDS MAY BE INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH-CNTRL AND NERN PA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. THIS
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

A LINE OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH-CNTRL AND
NERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. SEGMENTS OF THIS LINE HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN
INCREASING REFLECTIVITY AND ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND
40KT. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED COLD POOL SPREADS ESEWD GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG
WNWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW. AN AXIS OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PROBABLY EXISTS AHEAD OF THE LINE WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED THE MID 80S F. THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR AND STEEP BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFTS FROM POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 07/27/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

41677560 41557510 40777544 40507599 40437676 40397832
40887947 41317868

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 27, 5:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Blair and 29 more2 hr
Jul 27, 6:05 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Bedford, Berks and 31 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.