Alert archive / Iowa / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1849

July 14, 200328 counties in Iowa; Fillmore County, Houston County, Winona County, Minnesota; 5 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 14, 2003, 11:05 PM CDT for 28 counties in Iowa; Fillmore County, Houston County, Winona County, Minnesota; 5 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 14, 2003, 11:05 PM CDT (04:05 UTC)
Expired
Jul 15, 2003, 12:00 AM CDT
In force
55 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 36 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Boone County, IA, Bremer County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Butler County, IA, Cerro Gordo County, IA, Chickasaw County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Floyd County, IA, Franklin County, IA, Grundy County, IA, Hamilton County, IA, Hardin County, IA, Howard County, IA, Jasper County, IA, Linn County, IA, Marshall County, IA, Mitchell County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Story County, IA, Tama County, IA, Winneshiek County, IA, Wright County, IA, Fillmore County, MN, Houston County, MN, Winona County, MN, Crawford County, WI, Grant County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Richland County, WI, Vernon County, WI

The radar

The La Crosse radar (KARX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 00:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 206 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2003-07-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 00:00Z on 2003-07-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 16 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2108 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
49 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
105 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 150406
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150405 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-150500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1849
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...SE MN...WRN WI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 748...

VALID 150405Z - 150500Z

NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ORIENTED IN BAND ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH 06Z. COOLER/DRIER LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN WISCONSIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
OVERNIGHT.  

INFLOW OF VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS MAY MAINTAIN STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO...MOSTLY NORTH/EAST OF DES MOINES INTO AREAS NORTHWEST OF
DUBUQUE.  HOWEVER...VAD WIND DATA FROM DES MOINES ALREADY SUGGEST
LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 1 TO 2 KM AGL LAYER IS BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN...AND AS THIS TREND CONTINUES AFTER 06Z...FORCING FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.

..KERR.. 07/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

42469408 43099332 43879248 44349161 44209080 43369027
42569051 42189134 41639263 41729358 41979423

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 14, 7:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Chickasaw, Clayton, Fayette, Howard, Mitchell and 1 more119 min
Jul 14, 7:40 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Fayette and 12 more4 hr
Jul 14, 9:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Crawford, Dallas and 7 more36 min
Jul 15, 2:40 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClinton, Davis, Des Moines, Henry, Jefferson, Lee and 6 more3 hr
Jul 14, 7:42 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBlue Earth, Le Sueur, Nicollet, Rice, Steele, Waseca93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Minnesota, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.