Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 18

January 3, 20035 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2003, 11:12 PM EST for 5 states. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 3, 2003, 11:12 PM EST (04:12 UTC)
Expired
Jan 4, 2003, 5:15 AM EST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 48 counties

Franklin County, MA, Androscoggin County, ME, Cumberland County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Oxford County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Waldo County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Burlington radar (KCXX), 161 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 151 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2003-01-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 203 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
507 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
203 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
468 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 040413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040412 
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-041015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 PM CST FRI JAN 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN ME/VT/NH/NRN MA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 040412Z - 041015Z

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2/HOUR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NH/VT...SRN ME
AND ERN NY THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RATES MAY EXCEED 2/HOUR
LOCALLY.


LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW/VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING NEWD TOWARD SERN NY...WHICH WILL INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT
ACROSS ERN NY. IN ADDITION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
DEFORMATION BAND FORMING...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM GFL TO JUST S
OF PWM. THIS BAND CORRESPONDS WELL WITH THE ETA MODEL 700MB
FRONTOGENESIS FIELD WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NWD OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NRN
NJ/EXTREME SE NY AND CT THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION RATES DOWN IN THIS AREA.

..TAYLOR.. 01/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

42387162 42427329 41617475 42117559 43157564 44317394
44847111 44706870 44136908 43826985 43297055

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 4, 6:03 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAndroscoggin, Cumberland, Franklin, Hancock, Kennebec, Oxford and 5 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.