Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 17

January 3, 20036 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2003, 1:32 PM EST for 6 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2003, 1:32 PM EST (18:32 UTC)
Expired: Jan 3, 2003, 9:00 PM EST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 52 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Worcester County, MA, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Albany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Essex County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Susquehanna County, PA, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 133 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 111 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 462 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 239 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 309 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

161 
ACUS11 KWNS 031832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031832 
NYZ000-VTZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-MEZ000-040200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 PM CST FRI JAN 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NY VT NH MA ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 031832Z - 040200Z

EXPECT VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES...1-2 IN/HR...WITH SOME AREAS
LIKELY TO EXCEED 2 IN/HR RATES THRU THE MID-EVENING HOURS ACROSS
ERN NY STATE...MA...INTO VT/NH/AND INTO SRN ME.


PRESENT INCREASING PRECIPITATION RATES...SEEN ON RADAR
IMAGERY...IN SERN NY/CT/RI...ARE INDICATIVE OF INCREASING WAA
FIELDS ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LVL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
THIS TREND PROGGED TO CONTINUE VIA LATEST MODEL DATA THRU THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE 04-00/03Z TIME PERIOD LIKELY INDICATIVE
OF THE EXPANSION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES NWD INTO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND.


MOST RECENT RUC20 AND 03/12Z ETA AGREE WITH BOTH THE NWD MOVEMENT
AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE 650-700MB FIELDS FROM THE
CATSKILLS...INTO THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...EWD THRU MUCH OF MA BY
AROUND 04/00Z. THIS STRENGTHENING ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
45-60 KT ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AND FAVORABLE DEPOSITIONAL
SNOW GROWTH FACTOR WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES...POSSIBLY OVER 2 IN/HR...INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
TIMING OF THE STRONGEST FORCING SUGGESTS A NWD MOVEMENT OF THE
REGION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL FROM MUCH OF SERN NY AND MA BEFORE
03/21Z NWD INTO INTO VT/NH/AND ERN UPSTATE NY BETWEEN 03/21Z AND
04/03Z. PARTS OF SRN MAINE COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED BY INCREASING
SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 04/00-03Z. PARTS OF THE CATSKILLS AS WELL
AS THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN/AND MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES.

..NADEN.. 01/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

43937084 44287159 44597297 44067500 42977634 41737628
41617345 42037234 42637009 43606968

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 3, 9:55 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		4 hr
Jan 3, 12:37 PM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		4 hr
Jan 3, 10:28 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cayuga, Chemung, Chenango and 27 more	4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.