Alert archive / Connecticut / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 16

January 3, 2003Providence County, Rhode Island

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 3, 2003, 12:37 PM EST for Providence County, Rhode Island. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 3, 2003, 12:37 PM EST (17:37 UTC)
Expired
Jan 3, 2003, 4:30 PM EST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

County Providence County, RI

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2003-01-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2003-01-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 295 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
427 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
87 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
295 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

593 
ACUS11 KWNS 031738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031737 
CTZ000-RIZ000-032130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CST FRI JAN 03 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CT RI

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 031737Z - 032130Z

VERY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES AROUND 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE...
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CT AND PERHAPS INTO NRN RI
OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.


INTENSE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
NWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH 21Z. THIS LIFT WAS
OCCURRING WITHIN A DEEP SATURATED AIRMASS WHERE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGEST A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH FROM BOTH
DEPOSITION AND AGGREGATION. INCREASINGLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINICITY WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO SUGGESTS A SHARP TRANSITION
ZONE FROM RAIN TO SNOW WILL EXIST JUST INLAND FROM THE MARITIME
INFLUENCE OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL
WATERS. HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION
ZONE SHOULD ALSO ENHANCE MESOSCALE FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS DUE TO
LATENT HEAT EFFECTS AND SUPPORT HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF CT AND PORTIONS OF RI.


..CARBIN.. 01/03/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

41497271 41317360 41977356 42127150 41947125

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 3, 9:55 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC4 hr
Jan 3, 1:32 PM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPC7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Rhode Island, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.