Mesoscale Discussion 1613

Issued

Jul 4, 2003, 6:29 PM CDT (23:29 UTC)

Expired

Jul 4, 2003, 7:30 PM CDT

In force

61 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 042330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042329 
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-050030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CDT FRI JUL 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL/NRN IN/NCNTRL IN/NRN OH/WRN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 635...636...

VALID 042329Z - 050030Z

MCS COMPLEX CONTINUES TO MOVE ESEWD THRU NERN/ERN IN INTO NWRN OH.
WW #635 AND WW #636 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN EFFECT
THRU PRIOR EXPIRATION TIME OF 05/01Z WITH STRONGEST ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WRN/SWRN OH INTO WW #638.  

RECENT VISIBLE/RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE MCS AND COLD POOL CONTINUE TO
GET ORGANIZED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN IN INTO NWRN/WRN OH. TRACKING
FUNCTION REVEALS EXPECTED STRONGEST APEX OF CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD
BE AROUND 20 MILES WNW OF DAYTON BY 05/01Z WITH TRAILING SWWD LINE
INTO SCNTRL IN. AREAS FURTHER NORTH...NCNTRL/NRN OH...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF THIS DEVELOPING MCS GIVEN
RELATIVELY POOR RECOVERY OF AIRMASS DUE TO PRIOR MCS...SWRN/SRN
PA...MOVING THRU THESE AREAS. AREA RADARS/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
LINGERING SSE-NNW REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN/SCNTRL
OH...AND EXPECT A MORE SEWD TURN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  

AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING MCS /WRN OH...WCNTRL OH...ERN IN/
HAS TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...LEADING TO 100MB MIXED CAPE VALUES
1000-2500 J/KG. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BACKBUILD SWWD
ALONG HIGHER CAPE AXIS AND MAINTAIN INTO SCNTRL IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. MOST RECENT ILN VAD REVEALS 15 KT SWLY FLOW WITH A BACKED WLY
PROFILE FROM IND AT AROUND 20 KTS. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FROM ECNTRL/ERN IN EWD INTO
WRN/WCNTRL OH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE HAIL THREAT APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ALONG THE NRN FRINGE OF THE COMPLEX...ACROSS NWRN OH/EXTREME
SERN MI/INTO PORTIONS OF NRN OH.

..NADEN.. 07/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

39789000 40749106 41459042 41478639 41318200 41607991
41207756 39877848 39488460 39288789

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.