Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1602

July 4, 2003Cook County, Lake County, McHenry County, Illinois; 18 counties in Michigan; 13 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 4, 2003, 7:25 AM CDT for Cook County, Lake County, McHenry County, Illinois; 18 counties in Michigan; 13 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 4, 2003, 7:25 AM CDT (12:25 UTC)
Expired
Jul 4, 2003, 9:00 AM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Cook County, IL, Lake County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Allegan County, MI, Barry County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Cass County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mason County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Muskegon County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oceana County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Wexford County, MI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 0.4 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2003-07-04Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1540 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2003-07-04The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 33 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1540 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-96 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1004 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
47 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

680 
ACUS11 KWNS 041225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041225 
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-041400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1602
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 AM CDT FRI JUL 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SE WI/NE IL/N IND/W LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...

VALID 041225Z - 041400Z

CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS ERN WI/NERN IL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AT
40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NEW WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER WESTERN LOWER MI IF
THE LINE MAINTAINS ORGANIZATION.

LINEAR MCS HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE LINE REMAINED MODERATE UNSTABLE 
WITH MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. AS A RESULT...THE LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOME...MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS STILL AROUND 30 KT. AS
THE SFC TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE...REINTENSIFICATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AS THE LINE MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...A
LACK OF FRICTION OVER THE WATER SFC MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF
THE GUST FRONT AHEAD OF THE LINE. IF THE LINE CAN RETAIN
INTENSITY...THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE MAY EXIST AS THE LINE MOVES OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN AND BACK INLAND OVER LOWER MI.

..BROYLES.. 07/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...GRB...LOT...MKX...

41798683 41968842 43228862 44588847 44758688 44568531
43638519 42478525 41868545

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 4, 1:15 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCCarroll, Jo Daviess, Lee, Ogle, Rock Island, Stephenson and 2 more6 hr
Jul 4, 3:27 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 12 more93 min
Jul 4, 5:20 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Lake and 1 more4 hr
Jul 4, 12:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 26 more117 min
Jul 4, 2:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBureau, Champaign, DeWitt, Ford, Fulton, Grundy and 21 more6 hr
Jul 4, 3:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChampaign, DeWitt, Douglas, Ford, Iroquois, Kankakee and 4 more2 hr
Jul 4, 5:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBond, Clark, Clay, Clinton, Coles, Crawford and 27 more53 min
Jul 4, 6:29 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBureau, Champaign, Clark, Coles, DeWitt, Douglas and 29 more61 min
Jul 4, 7:50 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllegan, Barry, Berrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass and 18 more3 hr
Jul 4, 9:28 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Branch, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Genesee and 20 more2 hr
Jul 4, 9:45 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClinton, Genesee, Gratiot, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson and 11 more5 hr
Jul 4, 12:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBerrien, Branch, Calhoun, Cass, Hillsdale, Jackson and 10 more116 min
Jul 3, 11:23 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Crawford and 17 more97 min
Jul 4, 12:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Crawford, Dunn, Eau Claire and 9 more63 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.