Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 152

February 24, 200326 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 24, 2003, 2:42 PM CST for 26 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 24, 2003, 2:42 PM CST (20:42 UTC)
Expired
Feb 24, 2003, 6:45 PM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 26 counties

Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Cross County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Montgomery County, AR, Perry County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Pope County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Scott County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR, Yell County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 38 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2003-02-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2003-02-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -35 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
510 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
77 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-35 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
3 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

709 
ACUS11 KWNS 242042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242042 
ARZ000-250045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0152
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CST MON FEB 24 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AR

CONCERNING...PRECIPITATION TRENDS...WINTER PRECIPITATION 

VALID 242042Z - 250045Z

...SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CNTRL AR BY EVENING...



IMPRESSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL TX INTO SERN OK TOWARD CNTRL AR THIS
AFTERNOON...STILL AHEAD OF LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS.  LATEST
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS USING THE 297 K SURFACE INDICATES THE
STRONGEST ADIABATIC ASCENT OCCURRING WEST OF DFW AREA. 
RECENTLY...HOWEVER... ASCENT HAS INCREASED OVER ECNTRL OK WITH
2-4 G/KG MIXING RATIOS SURGING NWD INTO THE TEXARKANA REGION. 
THUS...EXPANDING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OBSERVED ON THE FSM RADAR
OVER ECNTRL OK WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD INTO CNTRL AR BY THIS
EVENING.



WET BULB TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ARE AROUND 30F OVER CNTRL AR AND
AS THE COLUMN COOLS/PCPN DEVELOPS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL
RAPIDLY TO AOB FREEZING.  THOUGH PCPN COULD START OUT AS
RAIN/SLEET...LATEST RUC40 EXPERIMENTAL PCPN-TYPE ALGORITHMS
SUGGEST THAT MAINLY SNOW IS LIKELY FROM PGO/FSM-LIT-JBR AND
SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH 1 INCH PER HOUR.	FARTHER
SOUTH...SLEET SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE PCPN-TYPE WHERE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 850 MB ONLY COOL TO 1-2C.  SNOW COULD MIX IN
FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE SLEET IN THE HEAVIER PCPN CORES.



..RACY/SCHNEIDER.. 02/24/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

35459414 35859154 35819061 34879077 34229197 34299412

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 24, 10:40 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Little River, Pike, Polk, Sevier4 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.