Mesoscale Discussion 151

Issued

Feb 24, 2003, 10:40 AM CST (16:40 UTC)

Expired

Feb 24, 2003, 2:45 PM CST

In force

4 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

000
ACUS11 KWNS 241641
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241640 
TXZ000-OKZ000-ARZ000-242045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0151
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1040 AM CST MON FEB 24 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NCNTRL TX...EXTREME SERN OK AND SWRN AR

CONCERNING...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 241640Z - 242045Z

...SLEET/FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...



LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS NOSE OF MIDLEVEL JET MIGRATES INTO FAR W TX.  AS A RESULT...
LOW-MIDLEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT IS ALSO INCREASING WITH CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS IN THE ABI VCNTY.  12 UTC H8 ANALYSIS SHOWED RATHER HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES WITH DEW POINTS OF 6-8C AT DRT AND CRP. 
THUS...THE SMALL INCREASE IN ASCENT WILL SATURATE THE COLUMN
RATHER RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A QUICKER ONSET OF
PCPN THAN SHORT TERM MODEL SUITES INDICATE. 



LATEST EXPERIMENTAL PCPN ALGORITHM SUITE SHOWS THAT THE WARM NOSE
IN THE H8-H7 WILL LIKELY SUPPORT MAINLY SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AT
THE ONSET.  HOWEVER...AS LIFT INCREASES AND THE COLUMN
COOLS...OWING TO WET BULBING...MAINLY SLEET SHOULD RESULT.  AREAS
FROM JCT-ACT-NEAR/NORTH OF TYR WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
FREEZING RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING.  PRIND THE HEAVIEST CORRIDOR
OF PCPN WILL OCCUR ALONG/JUST WEST OF I-35 FROM AUS-ACT-DAL
THROUGH MID EVENING...THOUGH MOST OF NCNTRL TX INTO SCNTRL/SERN
OK WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SLEET.



..RACY.. 02/24/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

33799344 32599551 30599786 30379904 32269945 32839892
34399580 34579380

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.