Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1113

May 25, 2003Jefferson County, Love County, Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 25, 2003, 3:42 AM CDT for Jefferson County, Love County, Oklahoma; 16 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 25, 2003, 3:42 AM CDT (08:42 UTC)
Expired: May 25, 2003, 5:45 AM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Jefferson County, OK, Love County, OK, Clay County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Denton County, TX, Ellis County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Henderson County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Jack County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Montague County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3246 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1342 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

316 
ACUS11 KWNS 250842
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250842 
TXZ000-OKZ000-251045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1113
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL-NERN TX/SRN OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 250842Z - 251045Z

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SRN OK/NRN TX WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...PROLONGED PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES
WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTION ESPECIALLY AROUND AND N OF FTW.

MCC CURRENTLY EXTENDED ALONG THE RED RIVER WITH CONVECTION MOVING
SLOWLY ESEWD ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION
IS LOCATED IN THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET BETWEEN WICHITA FALLS
AND FORT WORTH TX. ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THIS AREA IS ALSO IN A
LOCALIZED MOISTURE MAXIMUM WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F.
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR CDS APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. THIS
ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY REINFORCE CONVECTION FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH 20 TO 25 KT
AT 500 MB WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALLOWING FOR LOCALIZED
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS CURRENTLY NW
OF FTW AND STP ESTIMATES FROM THE FTW 88D SHOWED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THIS AREA. 1 TO 2 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM WICHITA FALLS..SE TO
DECATUR...DENTON AND INTO THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.

..BROYLES.. 05/25/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

33259845 34039854 34419774 33439595 31939561 32599755

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 24, 8:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cimarron	35 min
May 24, 8:22 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Beckham, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Tillman	23 min
May 24, 8:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Caddo, Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 2 more	5 hr
May 24, 9:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bryan, Carter, Love, Marshall	118 min
May 24, 10:05 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Comanche, Cotton, Greer, Harmon, Jackson, Kiowa and 1 more	85 min
May 24, 11:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Comanche, Cotton, Grady, Greer, Harmon, Jackson and 2 more	118 min
May 25, 1:11 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cotton, Jackson, Jefferson, Love, Marshall, Tillman	2 hr
May 25, 1:35 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Beckham, Bryan, Caddo, Carter, Choctaw, Comanche and 16 more	6 hr
May 24, 10:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis, Henderson, Hunt and 8 more	6 hr
May 25, 1:10 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Gaines, Loving and 9 more	95 min
May 25, 4:20 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Culberson, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward, Winkler	85 min
May 25, 4:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell and 2 more	6 hr
May 25, 5:06 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Burnet, Crockett, Culberson, Falls, Houston and 18 more	114 min
May 25, 6:19 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Concho, Crockett, Edwards, Irion, Kerr, Kimble and 9 more	86 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.