Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 103

February 21, 200319 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 21, 2003, 3:53 AM CST for 19 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 21, 2003, 3:53 AM CST (09:53 UTC)
Expired
Feb 21, 2003, 6:30 AM CST
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Aransas County, TX, Austin County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Calhoun County, TX, Colorado County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Goliad County, TX, Harris County, TX, Jackson County, TX, Kleberg County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Matagorda County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nueces County, TX, Refugio County, TX, San Patricio County, TX, Victoria County, TX, Waller County, TX, Wharton County, TX

The radar

The Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 104 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-21Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 962 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Corpus Christi, TX at 00:00Z on 2003-02-21The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 98 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
962 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-35 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
623 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
140 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.5
Supercell composite
2.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

178 
ACUS11 KWNS 210953
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210953 
TXZ000-211230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0103
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 210953Z - 211230Z

THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO INCREASE INVOF THE MIDDLE TX COAST. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH NEAR
SURFACE-BASED STORMS CLOSE TO THE COAST...ALONG WITH HAIL THREAT
WHICH EXTENDS FURTHER INLAND WHERE STORMS WILL REMAIN MORE
ELEVATED.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED BY 11Z.



SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND SRN TX AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW NOW OVER NWRN
MEXICO.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WARMING / MOISTENING ASSOCIATED
WITH SLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD ALLOW AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE.  ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY BETWEEN HIGH THETA-E GULF AIR AND
COOLER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE JUST OFFSHORE...SHALLOW
COOL AIR ALONG THE COAST SUGGESTS THAT NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP.  ADDITIONALLY...SURFACE LOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING
SOUTH OF CRP WHICH MAY ALLOW THIS BOUNDARY TO CREEP INLAND
INCREASING THE THREAT FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS.



DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS /
SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AWAY FROM THE
COAST WHERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.  HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LESS-ELEVATED STORMS NEARER THE
COAST.	AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY IF
HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS MOVES ONSHORE.

..GOSS.. 02/21/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

27389741 27359763 27539785 28509752 29719690 30499561
29899509 28969528 28419633 27879703

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 21, 1:43 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 1 more2 hr
Feb 21, 2:43 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDimmit, Edwards, Frio, Kinney, La Salle, Maverick and 5 more3 hr
Feb 21, 4:10 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos and 26 more6 hr
Feb 21, 4:25 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAustin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Calhoun, Colorado and 15 more6 hr
Feb 21, 5:58 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos and 26 more2 hr
Feb 21, 6:16 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Calhoun, Colorado and 17 more119 min
Feb 21, 9:02 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Cherokee, Fort Bend, Galveston and 22 more58 min
Feb 21, 9:40 AM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers and 25 more6 hr
Feb 21, 11:47 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Grimes and 18 more118 min
Feb 21, 1:30 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Harris, Jasper, Liberty, Montgomery, Newton and 3 more2 hr
Feb 21, 3:32 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHardin, Jasper, Liberty, Newton, Orange, Tyler118 min
Feb 21, 3:40 PM CSTTornado WatchSPCAngelina, Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Nacogdoches and 5 more6 hr
Feb 21, 5:50 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAngelina, Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Nacogdoches and 5 more115 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.