Alert archive / Tennessee / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 1007

May 15, 200310 counties in Tennessee

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 15, 2003, 7:03 PM CDT for 10 counties in Tennessee. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 7:03 PM CDT (00:03 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT
In force: 87 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Bledsoe County, TN, Blount County, TN, Cumberland County, TN, Loudon County, TN, McMinn County, TN, Meigs County, TN, Monroe County, TN, Rhea County, TN, Roane County, TN, Van Buren County, TN

The radar

The Northeast Alabama radar (KHTX), 131 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 470 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -38 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1395 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 47 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 82 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 1.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

520 
ACUS11 KWNS 160004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160003 
NCZ000-TNZ000-160130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 384...

VALID 160003Z - 160130Z

SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ERN PORTION OF WW
384...WITH LARGE HAIL REMAINING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. RECENT
INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER MIDDLE TN /CUMBERLAND
COUNTY/ AND OVER NERN AL SUGGESTS THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN
PORTIONS OF WW 384. BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT BEYOND 16/02Z...SO
REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WW 384 WOULD THEN LIKELY BE CANCELLED
EARLY. 

..CROSBIE.. 05/16/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX...

35508600 36208492 35958387 35158395

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 16, 9:39 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bedford, Benton, Carroll, Cheatham, Chester, Crockett and 32 more	96 min
May 16, 1:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bedford, Coffee, Franklin, Giles, Lawrence, Lincoln and 2 more	2 hr
May 16, 2:12 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crockett, Dyer, Haywood, Lauderdale, Shelby, Tipton	93 min
May 16, 2:50 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Crockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman, Haywood and 7 more	7 hr
May 16, 5:59 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Crockett, Dyer, Fayette, Gibson, Hardeman, Haywood and 7 more	91 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2003 Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.