Severe Thunderstorm Warning 19, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
330 PM MDT FRI AUG 15 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AND THIS
WILL GRADUALLY DRY THE AREA OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST.

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FAIRLY TERRAIN DRIVEN SO FAR TODAY. I
DO EXPECT CELLS TO HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH IN THE NORTH TO DRIFT
ACROSS THE VALLEYS TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT LOBE SWINGING
WESTWARD INTO UT. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO ALMOST HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SEEMS TO BE DUMBBELLING
AROUND THE LOW IN NEW MEXICO. THIS WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE NORTH
ACTIVE THRU MUCH OF TOMORROW UNTIL IT SHEARS OUT TO THE NORTH AHEAD
OF THE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC. THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY
SAT NIGHT BUT REMAINS LIGHT SO THERE SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AROUND ON SUNDAY FOR CONVECTION OVER ABOUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.

HAVE EXPANDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT TO COVER THE EASTERN
VALLEYS FROM PRICE SOUTHWARD AND ADDED EXTREME EASTERN IRON COUNTY
AS WELL. RADAR IS SHOWING VERY SLOW MOVEMENT TO CELLS AND FLASH
FLOODING IS A GOOD BET. CELLS OVER THE NORTH COULD GENERATE HEAVY
RAIN TOO BUT THEY SHOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER.

MONDAY SHOULD BE DRIER ALTHO THE REMNANTS OF THE PACIFIC LOW COULD
BE GRAZING OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES. RIDGE AXIS COMES BY TUE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THAT DAY THEN
SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP WED THRU THE END OF THE WEEK AND MODEL TRIES
TO DRY US OUT.

SLC 5552  CDC 5553  WILENSKY

.SLC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
       VALLEYS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>021-WYZ021-161300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
700 AM MDT FRI AUG 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING

.DAY ONE... TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN UTAH THROUGH THIS EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  SEE THE LATEST FLOOD WATCH (SLCFFASLC) ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.