Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
800 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

.CURRENT...FRONT LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF MIDLAND TO SAN SABA.
RADAR BEGINNING TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
FROM SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

.FORECAST...HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH WHAT TO DO WITH THE POPS SINCE
WE WALKED IN THE DOOR. INTIALLY WE WERE THINKING THAT THINGS WOULD
FIRE UP OVER THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING...BUT THE FRONT SNUCK A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN WE WERE THINKING. NOW AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BEGINS TO
MAKE ITS PRESENCE FELT ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SEE MOST ACTIVITY
ITIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANYWHERE WITHIN 30 MILES OF A
STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO SAN SABA LINE THIS EVENING. THEN
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST AS LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN
AND HELPS ACTIVITY SUSTAIN WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS IT COMES IN FROM
THE WEST. STILL THINK BEST ACTIVITY WILL BE JUST NORTH OF SAN ANGELO
TO SOUTH OF ABILENE.

ZONE UPDATE TO FLY SOON.

27/BRAZZELL

LATEST SAT AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THE FRONT HAS SAGGED TO JUST
SOUTH OF I20 AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT AFTERNOON TEMPS
BELOW GUIDANCE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SO FAR IN THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...LATEST MSAS
ANALYSIS INDICATING BEST INSTABILITY IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
A FEW ECHOS HAVE SHOWN UP IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ETA HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON MAPPING PRECIP THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS THAN HAS THE AVN. FOR THIS REASON WILL LEAN ON THE
ETA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS BUT WILL NOT COMPLETELY IGNORE AVN.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD RECEDE NORTH THIS EVENING AND ETA IS
INDICATING A S/W CARRIED IN NW FLOW ALOFT DIVING SE ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY TONIGHT. WITH AN ACTIVE LLJ PROGD FOR TONIGHT... WILL KEEP
THE BEST SHOT OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOT COMPLETELY
IGNORING THE AVN...WILL MAINTAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ELSEWHERE.

UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINNING MONDAY
RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST AND TEMPS HOVERING AROUND CLIMO THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BACKING OFF PRECIP CHANCES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL DELETE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR NOW.

PRELIMS...

ABI 062/084/061/084 421-
SJT 063/085/062/085 31--
JCT 064/084/063/084 21--

.SJT...NONE.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-061845-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
756 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL TONIGHT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE FROM STERLING CITY TO SAN ANGELO TO
BRADY AND SAN SABA.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT
WITH THIS STATIONARY FRONT.

IN FACT...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM SAN ANGELO TO BRADY TO
SAN SABA.  AS THESE STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST OVER
THE SAME AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.  ISOLATED TOTALS
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM MAY
ALSO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

GUERRERO