Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 83, NWS San Angelo, TX

October 6, 2003Schleicher County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Oct 6, 2003, 2:16 PM CDT for Schleicher County, Texas. It was in force for 119 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 6, 2003, 2:16 PM CDT (19:16 UTC)
Expired
Oct 6, 2003, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
NWS San Angelo, TX
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Schleicher County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 7.3 hours before the alert went out and 178 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-10-06Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1143 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-10-06The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1143 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-46 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
715 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
71 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 061918
FFWSJT
TXC413-062115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
ISSUED BY NWS MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
216 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 211 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN 10 MILES NORTH OF 
ELDORADO...MOVING SOUTH AT 15 MPH.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

LAT...LON 3108 10035 3107 10070 3074 10068 3074 10030

$$

15

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 6, 2:31 AM CDT, 11 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 2:31 AM CDT, 11 hours 45 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
231 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM/CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE WITH RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEK. MODELS VARY WITH POPS...BUT GENERALLY LOOK OVERDONE.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND TO
SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY AND SHOULD BE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY.
CURRENT RADAR INDICATES CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO CONCHO VALLEY FROM WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. THIS MAY
DRIVE THE EFFECTIVE FRONT SOUTHWARD MORE QUICKLY. WILL MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PLACEMENT OF POPS IN THE ZONE FORECAST.

MODELS INDICATE SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR TO WORK SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
OUR COUNTIES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAY CARRY AN EVENING POP IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT DROP POPS FARTHER NORTH.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEPICTED FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS...AND EXPECT LATE NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO GO DRY IN THE ZONE PACKAGE AND DISCOUNT
THE GFS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MOVING INTO NORTH TX WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GFS IS VERY INCONSISTENT IN SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS. THE 00Z VERSION HAS AN UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST
WITHOUT GETTING INCORPORATED INTO SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. DOWNSTREAM
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MAINTAINED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES...TX AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL KEEP A DRY ZONE FORECAST AND GO WITH SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN OUR COUNTIES.

PRELIMINARY CCF...

ABI 080/059/083/058/084 2000
SJT 082/062/084/060/085 2-00
JCT 084/063/084/060/084 42-0

.SJT...NONE.

19
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 6, 1:35 PM CDT, 41 minutes before
TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
WITH AMPLE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING WEST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAY DRIFT TOWARD WESTERN CROCKETT COUNTY...
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONCHO VALLEY...AND THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

15

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 5, 9:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTMcCulloch65 min
Oct 5, 11:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTFisher55 min
Oct 6, 1:26 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTNolan49 min
Oct 6, 1:43 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTCoke47 min
Oct 6, 2:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTSchleicher57 min
Oct 6, 3:00 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTSchleicher30 min
Oct 6, 3:30 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningSJTSchleicher, Sutton60 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.