Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

.CURRENT...AIRMASS IS RATHER JUICY OUTSIDE WITH 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS
JUST ABOUT ACROSS ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHED INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY EARLIER...THIS FEATURE HAS NOW BECOME
ILL-DEFINED...HOWEVER PROBABLY STILL LINGERS AROUND.

.TODAY...FRONT WILL PROGRESS A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WILL
BI-SECT THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO DRYLINE TO INTERSECT THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST
BIG COUNTRY. ALSO WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIATE JUST BEFORE THE END OF
THIS PERIOD...THUS LEFT IN SCATTERED POPS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE.

.TONIGHT...THE MAIN SHOW SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IT LOOKS TO BE RATHER ACTIVE. AS STRONG WAVE
APPROACHES THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET GOING PRETTY GOOD THIS EVENING.
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ALSO WILL HAVE STRONG SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
EARLY IN THE EVENT. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE NORTH OF A
ROBERT LEE TO BROWNWOOD LINE...WHERE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE BACKED
JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE
INTO MCS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT WINDS STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT INCREASING. THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM
OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND PROPAGATE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE
HEARTLAND. WITH PWS NEAR 2.5 INCHES AND PER COORDINATION WITH FWD
WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR JUST ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA NOT INCLUDING TOM GREEN...STERLING OR IRION
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME AS IT APPEARS AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD BE
TO THE NORTH OF THESE COUNTIES. DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
WATCH TO INCLUDE THESE COUNTIES AS WELL IF FEATURES SHIFT JUST A
LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.

.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LEFT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH THE SAME HERE JUST
TWEAKED  POPS AND TEMPS TO MATCH BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

.EXTENDED...NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

ABI 092/070/090/070 3933
SJT 093/071/093/070 2623
JCT 094/073/093/069 2624

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH OF A ROBERT LEE TO BRADY TO SAN SABA
LINE.

27/BRAZZELL

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-141000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
500 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND...NORTHEASTERN CONCHO VALLEY...AND BIG COUNTRY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT...A
DRYLINE...AND A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT...WILL INITIATE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WHICH ARE NORTH OF A
ROBERT LEE TO BRADY TO SAN SABA LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

23/HUBER