Flash Flood Warning 53, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
315 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

BUSY DAY...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN NM
THIS MORNING HAS DRIFTED SOUTHEAST TO JUST WEST OF MIDLAND WITH THE
DRY LINE TRAILING SOUTH BETWEEN FORT STOCKTON AND MIDLAND. MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW HAS PUSHED SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO NEAR 60
IN NM NORTH OF THE LOW. A MYRIAD OF BOUNDARIES IDENTIFIED ON CURRENT
VIS LOOP. MAIN BOUNDARY WITHIN THE CWA HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
ABILENE AREA WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE ISSUED FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UPPER WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN CO. AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND GIVEN GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING IN THAT
AREA EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AND INTENSIFICATION
ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE.
EXPECTED DEVELOPING MCS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TONIGHT AND WILL BE
SITUATED OVER EASTERN TEXAS BY TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE OVER THE BIG COUNTRY IN PROXIMITY
TO A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN OTHER LOCATIONS DEPENDENT ON OTHER BOUNDARY LOCATIONS. AS TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA... CWA WILL AGAIN COME UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PERIODIC IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL WARRANT
KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE EXTENDED SO NO CHANGES MADE
TO EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

ABI 067/086/065/086 9333
SJT 071/091/067/089 6332
JCT 073/089/067/087 6233

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES UNTIL 6 AM CDT SATURDAY
MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL BUT
NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU.

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TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-141930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

...THERE IS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OVER ALL OF THE CWA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY AND THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING...

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THROUGHOUT MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE MID MORNING. THIS EVENING...THE
COMBINATION OF A WEAK COLD FRONT...AN EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE...AND
A STRONG SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVING EAST FROM NEW MEXICO...AND NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPAWN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL..
DAMAGING WINDS...AND FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
WITH ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. EMBEDDED UPPER AIR
IMPULSES IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY.

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