Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
910 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

COLD FRONT ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS SOUTHWEST TO JUST NORTH
OF BIG SPRINGS AT 9 PM. FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING HASKELL
COUNTY...MOVING SOUTH 17 MPH. LARGE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF FRONT ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN MOVED NORTH
INTO THE STERLING CITY AND ROBERT LEE AREA. SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
MEANS THAT FLOODING LIKELY.  FRONT SHOULD REACH ABILENE AROUND 11
PM...1 OR 2 AM IN SAN ANGELO.

WILL RECONFIGURE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...SO I WILL BE ADDING CROCKETT...SUTTON...SCHLEICHER...
MASON...MENARD...AND KIMBLE.

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL 5 AM.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #486 UNTIL 1 AM.

04

...150 PM DISCUSSION BELOW...
.CURRENT...COLD FRONT APPROACHING LUBBOCK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
FIREWORKS SHOULD GET STARTED BEFORE 00Z IN THIS REGION...AS TCU
ALREADY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. CLOSER TO HOME...MOISTURE
ADVECTION UNDERWAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...AS DEWPOINTS HAVE
RISEN INTO THE MID 60S FROM JUNCTION AND SAN ANGELO...TO SWEETWATER.

.TONIGHT...MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF LUBBOCK LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN PROPAGATE/BUILD TOWARD SAN ANGELO AND SAN SABA
TONIGHT. STORMS MAY NOT REACH SAN ANGELO UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 1.75 INCHES...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND NORTHERN HEARTLAND...ALONG THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF THE
MCS. CANNOT RULE OUT HEAVY RAIN FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY...AS CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHWEST
FLANK. IN ADDITION...SHOWALTER VALUES ARE GREATEST ACROSS THE CONCHO
VALLEY AND HEARTLAND...MINUS 6.

.SUNDAY...COLD FRONT TO STALL NEAR I-10...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR MORE
DEVELOPMENT. ONLY CONCERN IS ATMOSPHERE MAY NOT RELOAD. BUT BASED ON
ETA CAPES AND CIN VALUES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ERUPT WITH
ANY KIND OF HEATING. STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
UNTIL SURFACE INSOLATION CEASES.

.MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED ALOFT.
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...SOME DECENT IN STRENGTH...TO INTERACT WITH
DRYLINE. WESTERN COUNTIES FAVORED. NO SHORTAGE OF MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE.

.EXTENDED WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...GFS STILL BACKING OFF OF PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED RIDGING MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IN FACT THIS ARE
TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE WESTERN US. THIS IS STILL
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. NO ONE DAY LOOKS BETTER THAN THE OTHER AT THIS POINT AND
WITH CHANCES SO LOW...PLAN TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS
POINT WITH BIGGER FISH TO FRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER IT SHOULD NOT BE THAT BAD AS
MOST SUNS ENERGY WILL STILL BE GOING TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE.
HOWEVER IT COULD BE QUITE HUMID.

PRELIMS...

ABI 063/078/063/088 9421
SJT 066/081/065/089 6422
JCT 071/082/066/090 3311

12PLANET/ISC COORDINATION WITH FWD/EWX. THANKS SISTER WFOS.

.SJT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR THE BIG COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY
AND HEARTLAND.

27/BRAZZELL/17

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-090000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
129 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY...CONCHO VALLEY...AND HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM BROWNWOOD TO SAN ANGELO
TO MERTZON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE SOUTH
OF THE APPROACHING FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING. THE STORMS COULD ORGANIZE
INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE HEARTLAND TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
IT MOVES DOWN INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND TONIGHT.

THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES COULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO THREE INCHES
POSSIBLE. WITH THE GROUND NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...
SOME LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE WATER RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF A LINE FROM MERTZON TO SAN
ANGELO AND SAN SABA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...AS
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...
AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

27/BRAZZELL