Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TONIGHT-MONDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SHORTWAVE
TRACKING EASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN NM INTO WESTERN TX. EAST-WEST
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS INTERSTATE 20 TO LIFT NORTHWARD TO RED RIVER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...
AND EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL COUNTIES THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH INCREASING UPPER
SUPPORT AND STRONG INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...ANOTHER
MCS COULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OK/RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS COULD CLIP THE BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT. WILL
BOOST POPS SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...AND POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY IF GREATER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBABLE...BUT SPEED OF STORM MOVEMENT ACROSS
OUR COUNTIES SHOULD PRECLUDE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. WILL MONITOR
DEVELOPING SITUATION. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY...FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER TO MOVE
BACK SOUTH AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX. FLY IN
THE OINTMENT FOR WINDS AND FRONTAL TIMING IS IF OVERNIGHT MCS IN
OKLAHOMA DRIVES A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO OUR
COUNTIES...AND WHETHER THIS BECOMES THE EFFECTIVE FRONT. A LITTLE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INDICATED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES
MONDAY. WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE HEARTLAND AND NW HILL COUNTRY...WITH LOWER POPS
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHERN...
CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF MINOR SHORT WAVES. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER MAINLY THE BIG
COUNTRY. BEST POPS WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING AS A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
VORT MAX MOVES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. BIG COUNTRY HIGHS TUESDAY
UNCERTAIN...A MEAN BETWEEN AVN AND ETA MOS LOOKS MORE REASONABLE.
OTHERWISE...NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.

DAYS 4-7...HAVE COMPLETED FIRST ROUND OF ALL GRIDS IN GFE AND HAVE
SAVED ALL TO INTERSITE COORDINATION. LATEST MRF STILL VERY
AGGRESSIVE ON POPS FOR THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SOLUTION WILL
INCREASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO CHANCE FOR THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINING DAYS...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT CHANCE. MRF MOS
NUMBERS LOOK GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES.

CCF PRELIMS...

ABI 071/093 070/090 068 41323
SJT 072/096 070/093 070 32322
JCT 072/097 070/093 073 23322

.SJT...NONE.

TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...19
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...23/HUBER

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-021915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SUN JUN 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ENCOMPASSES ALL OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SONORA TO
RICHLAND SPRINGS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO WEST TEXAS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WEST
OF THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY BY THIS EVENING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A STORM COMPLEX ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR IN PLACE...SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
ON MONDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS FRONT...
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES AFFECT THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0421 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0416 PM    13 W ROBERT LEE           TX   1.75 IN HAIL
06/01/03   COKE

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0536 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0528 PM    1 E ABILENE               TX   0.88 IN HAIL
06/01/03   TAYLOR

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0554 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0532 PM    3 N GRAPE CREEK           TX   0.88 IN HAIL
06/01/03   TOM GREEN

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0555 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    GRAPE CREEK               TX   1.75 IN HAIL
06/01/03   TOM GREEN

BRAZZELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
0556 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    GRAPE CREEK               TX   70 MPH TSTORM WIND
06/01/03   TOM GREEN

BRAZZELL