Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 112349
FFSSJT
TXC327-120115-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
647 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCCULLOCH COUNTY 
UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AT 645 PM INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAVE SHIFTED INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PART
OF MCCULLOCH COUNTY. OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTY THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE WIDELY SCATTERED. 

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
FALLEN OVER MUCH OF MCCULLOCH COUNTY...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER THREE INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTY...BUT ANOTHER HALF TO ONE INCH IS POSSIBLE
IN FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. 

LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED. DO NOT DRIVE
THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. BE ALERT FOR RAPID
WATER RISES NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. IF HEAVY RAIN DOES
NOT REDEVELOP...WATER LEVELS WILL RECEDE THROUGH LATE EVENING. 

$$

19

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
232 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2003

WITH MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL FOCUS ON THE
SHORT TERM.

THE OFFICE DOUBTING THOMASES ARE SCOFFING AT THE HIGH POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO RAIN BEARING DOWN ON OUR PART OF TEXAS...YET A LOOK
TO OUR WEST YIELDS DEVELOPING RAIN MAKER AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AS IT INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.

TODAYS SEMI-PERMANENT RAIN BAND ALONG I-20 FROM JUST NORTH OF ABI TO
THE METROPLEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR RAIN.

SO HERE IS THE THINKING FOR TONIGHTS BIG SHOW...EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP DESTABILIZE MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...THE LEAST
IMPACTED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE WORKED THE ATMOSPHERE INTO A MORE STABLE
MODE.

SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY A SQUALL LINE MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY POST SUNSET
HOURS...MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...MAIN SEVERE THINKING IS WIND THREAT...THO STORMS MAY REACH
HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET SOME HAIL BUT WIND SEEMS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING.  THEN AS THE SQUALL LINE LOSES ITS
PUSH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES....IN ADDITION THE SAGGING OUTFLOW FROM THE
NORTH WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE SAME AREA.  THIS COULD MEAN
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  THIS SHOULD FIT IN WELL WITH FFA FROM
OUR SISTER OFFICES.  AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 7 AM.  EVENING AND MIDNIGHT CREWS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS LATER.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FOR MOST AREAS ON
FRIDAY...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SO
WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS.

NO CHANGES DAYS 2-7. THO ANOTHER PROSPECT OF RAIN LOOMS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS...
ABI 058/079/058/083 4100
SJT 060/080/057/084 5100
JCT 063/080/056/084 84-0

.SJT...FFA TX154-155-168-169-170 THROUGH 7 AM.

25

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-121930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
235 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN ALBANY...ABILENE...STERLING CITY LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAME AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

09