Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
232 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2003

WITH MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WILL FOCUS ON THE
SHORT TERM.

THE OFFICE DOUBTING THOMASES ARE SCOFFING AT THE HIGH POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH NO RAIN BEARING DOWN ON OUR PART OF TEXAS...YET A LOOK
TO OUR WEST YIELDS DEVELOPING RAIN MAKER AS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
WILL ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES AS IT INTERACTS WITH COLD FRONT MAKES IT
WAYS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING.

TODAYS SEMI-PERMANENT RAIN BAND ALONG I-20 FROM JUST NORTH OF ABI TO
THE METROPLEX WILL ALSO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR RAIN.

SO HERE IS THE THINKING FOR TONIGHTS BIG SHOW...EXPECT DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP DESTABILIZE MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF OUR AREA...THE LEAST
IMPACTED AREAS WILL BE THE NORTHERN BIG COUNTRY WHERE PERSISTENT
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE WORKED THE ATMOSPHERE INTO A MORE STABLE
MODE.

SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY A SQUALL LINE MOVE FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR COUNTIES FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY POST SUNSET
HOURS...MAIN THREAT WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE SEVERE
STORMS...MAIN SEVERE THINKING IS WIND THREAT...THO STORMS MAY REACH
HIGH ENOUGH INTO THE ATMOSPHERE TO GET SOME HAIL BUT WIND SEEMS TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING.  THEN AS THE SQUALL LINE LOSES ITS
PUSH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN SHOULD STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES....IN ADDITION THE SAGGING OUTFLOW FROM THE
NORTH WILL ALSO SETTLE OVER THE SAME AREA.  THIS COULD MEAN
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.  THIS SHOULD FIT IN WELL WITH FFA FROM
OUR SISTER OFFICES.  AT THIS POINT WILL CARRY THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH 7 AM.  EVENING AND MIDNIGHT CREWS WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON WHAT TO DO WITH THIS LATER.

RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY FOR MOST AREAS ON
FRIDAY...AM JUST NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES SO
WILL MAINTAIN 40 POPS.

NO CHANGES DAYS 2-7. THO ANOTHER PROSPECT OF RAIN LOOMS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

PRELIMS...
ABI 058/079/058/083 4100
SJT 060/080/057/084 5100
JCT 063/080/056/084 84-0

.SJT...FFA TX154-155-168-169-170 THROUGH 7 AM.

25

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-121930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
235 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTH OF AN ALBANY...ABILENE...STERLING CITY LINE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE SAME AREA. A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

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