Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1235 AM CDT SUN JUN 15 2003

WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE CONCHO VALLEY AND HEARTLAND.
AFTER COORDINATION WITH SPC...HAVE ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. SENT AN UPDATE TO REFLECT THIS
ADDED WATCH.

.SJT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 500 AM CDT FOR THESE
COUNTIES...

IRION...TOM GREEN...CONCHO...MCCULLOCH...SAN SABA...
CROCKETT...SCHLEICHER...SUTTON...MASON...KIMBLE...AND MENARD

23/HUBER

****  813 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003 DISCUSSION  ****

LATEST RADAR SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY...FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RED
RIVER.  STORMS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER FAR EASTERN NEW
MEXICO.  THE STORMS  TO THE WEST MAY HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO
MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS TONIGHT...AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL RECOVERING
FROM YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAINS. WILL KEEP CURRENT POPS GOING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK  SO FAR...SO NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME.

------

UPPER TROUGH OVER OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
INDIVIDUAL CELLS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS EVEN
DRIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
...ATMOSPHERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO BEING RECOVERED FROM YESTERDAYS
CONVECTION. TEMPS HOLDING IN THE 80S...BUT DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S INSTEAD OF LOWER 70S. THUS...DO NOT
NEARLY HAVE THE INSTABILITY THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT DAYS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. THE FIRST...THE
ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS OKLAHOMA...SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SHEAR ZONE AND HEAD MOSTLY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER
...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HEADING SOUTH FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL CROSS
THE RED RIVER AND MAY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INTO MY NORTHERN
ZONES THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS...WHERE BETTER
INSTABILITY SHOULD COINCIDE WITH GOOD UPSLOPE FLOW. THESE STORMS
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MY SOUTHWEST ZONES...AND MAY EXPAND
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT. WILL
REORIENT POPS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND PLACE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS
THE SOUTH INSTEAD OF THE NORTH.

UPPER TROUGH TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT ACROSS TEXAS THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL BE ON THE RELATIVELY
DRY SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT WILL STILL NEED SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...WITH BEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AND DRY US OUT. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL NOT MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT NUMBERS...ALTHOUGH WITH A VERY
WET GROUND AND A LOT MORE VEGETATION...WILL SLOW THE WARMUP JUST A
TAD.

ABI 063/085/064/086 4222
SJT 063/086/064/086 4222
JCT 067/086/063/086 5332

.SJT...NONE.

07

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-151915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT. AS DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

04