Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS San Angelo, TX

April 29, 2003Nolan County, Texas

NWS San Angelo, TX issued this flash flood warning at Apr 29, 2003, 8:21 PM CDT for Nolan County, Texas. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 29, 2003, 8:21 PM CDT (01:21 UTC)
Expired: Apr 29, 2003, 11:15 PM CDT
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS San Angelo, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Nolan County, TX

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 1.4 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 4417 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KSJT 300123
FFWSJT
TXC353-300415-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
821 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NOLAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 816 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NOLAN...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF
  BLACKWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT...   
  THE AREA BETWEEN MARYNEAL AND BLACKWELL

* RAINFALL TOTALING BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES HAS FALLEN IN THE WARNED 
AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL UP TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED THROUGH 
1115 PM CDT

DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. THE WATER DEPTH
MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
DRIVE AROUND BARRICADES. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES
AND AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARD TO SEE.

LAT...LON 3223 10046 3210 10031 3227 10020 3232 10023
          3235 10048

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 29, 3:22 PM CDT, 4 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 29, 3:22 PM CDT, 4 hours 59 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
322 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LAPS CAPE VALUES STARTING TO PUSH 4000 J/KG ACROSS
THE WESTERN BIG COUNTRY. HELICITY AND SHEAR VALUES PRETTY NOT
IMPRESSIVE
...SO TORNADO THREAT APPEARS RELATIVELY SMALL.

FOR TONIGHT...WHATEVER CONVECTION DEVELOPS WILL NOT GET MUCH UPPER
SUPPORT...SO EXPECT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO DISSIPATE BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND EFFECT MAINLY MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SIMILAR SITUATION
POSSIBLE FOR WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND
SHOULD HAVE THE SUPPORT OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MODELS
UNDERESTIMATED THE MOISTURE DEPTH ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES THIS
MORNING...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THEY DID IT AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER DRYLINE EXPECTED ...WILL KEEP A
MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR EVEN THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND
INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE EAST.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO DROP INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS BY
FRIDAY. HARD TO COUNT ON FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT
WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN SOME OF THE
EASTERN COUNTIES.

NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY...WITH A DRYLINE
AND COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BE OFF TO THE EAST...HAVE PULLED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

CCF PRELIMS..

ABI 061/088/061/089 321
SJT 063/089/062/091 321
JCT 065/085/063/089 222

.SJT...NONE.

07

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 29, 3:12 PM CDT, 5 hours 9 minutes before

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-302015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
312 PM CDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

AS THE DRYLINE PUSHES INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

WITH THE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO REMAIN NEAR OR ACROSS THE AREA...
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

24

The office that day

Everything else NWS San Angelo, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 29, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Runnels	65 min
Apr 29, 7:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Nolan	50 min
Apr 29, 7:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Coke	61 min
Apr 29, 7:35 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Runnels	55 min
Apr 29, 7:58 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Coke	47 min
Apr 29, 8:16 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Nolan	29 min
Apr 29, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Taylor	53 min
Apr 29, 8:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Runnels	60 min
Apr 29, 8:38 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SJT	Runnels	3 hr
Apr 29, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Nolan	60 min
Apr 29, 8:48 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Coke	42 min
Apr 29, 8:56 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	SJT	Runnels	64 min
Apr 29, 9:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan	46 min
Apr 29, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Coleman	58 min
Apr 29, 9:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Taylor	39 min
Apr 29, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Callahan	44 min
Apr 29, 10:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Jones	55 min
Apr 29, 10:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Brown	64 min
Apr 29, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SJT	Coleman	47 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.