Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 451, NWS Springfield, MO

August 1, 2003Phelps County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 1, 2003, 6:48 PM CDT for Phelps County, Missouri. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 1, 2003, 6:48 PM CDT (23:48 UTC)
Expired: Aug 1, 2003, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Phelps County, MO

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 1, 2:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.8 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 186 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -244 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2058 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 138 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 171 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 012348
SVRSGF
MOC161-020045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
648 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  PHELPS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.

* AT 645 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ST. ROBERT TO 6 MILES EAST
  OF FORT LEONARD WOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
   NEWBURG BY 705 PM CDT.
   DOOLITTLE BY 710 PM CDT.
   ROLLA BY 725 PM CDT.
   ST. JAMES BY 740 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF JEROME AND NORTHWYE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE
STORMS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3792 9211 3761 9204 3779 9181 3779 9153
          3808 9153

$$

JLT

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 1, 3:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 3:25 PM CDT, 3 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR AROUND ROLLA AND WAYNESVILLE. EXPECT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA AND BEGIN ALONG OTHER
BOUNDARIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO
WHERE MOST INTENSE DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG OVER JASPER AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...AND
LIS AROUND -8...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXCEPT BENTON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...WHICH ARE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL JET MAX IS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...JUST
WAITING TO FUEL THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE IN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY ALL ZONES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON BUILDING SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
AND NORTHEST U.S.. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
JET MAX MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MORE OF UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION
WILL WARRANT TEMPO THUNDER IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT MOST INTENSE STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...WITH
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALSO NOTED IN TEMPO GROUP. HAVE CARRIED SCATTERED
STORMS IN TWEB ROUTES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO CLINTON
THROUGH 08Z.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

TERRY

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 1, 1:00 PM CDT, 5 hours 48 minutes before

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL UP TO
  THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

  THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PROLONGED
  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MID MISSOURI INTO
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 2 PM...AND THEN BUILD OVER THE REMAINDER
  OF THE OZARKS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS
  REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
  OVER THE AREA...FILTERED SUNSHINE HAD WARMED TEMPERATURES
  INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
  TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA...AND
  SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALLOWING
  FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.

  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS ENTERING
  CENTRAL KANSAS...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
  THIS DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
  FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE STORMS
  TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
  AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
  EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS
  THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
  FLASH FLOODING.

  BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE
  REQUIRED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
  SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
  FLOODING RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS A FOCUSING COLD FRONT
  SHIFTS SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA.

  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MID
  AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
  AND MID MISSOURI. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERSONS INVOLVED IN
  SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR LOCAL OUTLETS
  FOR THE LATER STATEMENTS AND ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

BOOKBINDER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 1, 5:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    BOLIVAR                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   POLK                           TREE LIMBS AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 5:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0528 PM    3 E WILLOW SPRINGS        MO   2.75 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   HOWELL                         BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND
                                          LARGE TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 5:56 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
556 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0554 PM    4 SW MONETT               MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   BARRY                          REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 6:03 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0559 PM    HARTVILLE                 MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   WRIGHT                         TREES DOWN IN HARTVILLE.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 6:22 PM CDT, 26 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    2 S PURDY                 MO   .88 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   BARRY                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

Local storm report, Aug 1, 6:24 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
624 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    1 N PLEASANT HOPE         MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   POLK                           NUMEROUS LARGE TREES DOWN
                                          IN A SWATH 3/4 MILE WIDE
                                          AND AT LEAST 1 MILE IN
                                          LENGTH ALONG HIGHWAY KK.
                                          3 FOOT DIAMETER TREE DOWN
                                          ON HOUSE CAUSING MAJOR
                                          STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 1, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Phelps, Pulaski	65 min
Aug 1, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell	56 min
Aug 1, 3:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dade	37 min
Aug 1, 4:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Shannon, Texas	55 min
Aug 1, 4:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Polk	56 min
Aug 1, 4:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Greene, McDonald	61 min
Aug 1, 4:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dallas	61 min
Aug 1, 4:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry	70 min
Aug 1, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Webster	65 min
Aug 1, 5:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell	56 min
Aug 1, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Ozark	70 min
Aug 1, 5:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Wright	37 min
Aug 1, 5:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Wright	36 min
Aug 1, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry	65 min
Aug 1, 6:00 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Barry	3 hr
Aug 1, 6:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Christian	54 min
Aug 1, 6:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Pulaski	54 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.