Severe Thunderstorm Warning 448, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

.MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
NEAR I-44 CORRIDOR AROUND ROLLA AND WAYNESVILLE. EXPECT STORM
DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE IN THIS AREA AND BEGIN ALONG OTHER
BOUNDARIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST MO
WHERE MOST INTENSE DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING. LATEST LAPS DATA
SHOWS CAPES OVER 4000 J/KG OVER JASPER AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES...AND
LIS AROUND -8...WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 825 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR
ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...EXCEPT BENTON AND MORGAN
COUNTIES...WHICH ARE NORTH OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
MID LEVEL JET MAX IS STILL APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...JUST
WAITING TO FUEL THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD LIMIT HAIL THREAT TONIGHT BUT
EXPECT WIND AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS TONIGHT ALL AREAS TONIGHT WITH MENTION OF SEVERE IN
ZONES. WILL ALSO LINGER CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY ALL ZONES AND
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT OVER THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGREE ON BUILDING SOUTHWEST U.S. RIDGE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC
AND NORTHEST U.S.. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY STRONG
JET MAX MOVING OVER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...WILL KEEP EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. WILL ALSO BRING
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MORE OF UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER THE REGION
WILL WARRANT TEMPO THUNDER IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECT MOST INTENSE STORMS BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z...WITH
HIGHER WIND GUSTS ALSO NOTED IN TEMPO GROUP. HAVE CARRIED SCATTERED
STORMS IN TWEB ROUTES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OSAGE BEACH TO CLINTON
THROUGH 08Z.

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HAIL UP TO
  THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

  THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT MAY LEAD TO PROLONGED
  TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MID MISSOURI INTO
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AFTER 2 PM...AND THEN BUILD OVER THE REMAINDER
  OF THE OZARKS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN ALREADY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OZARKS
  REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
  OVER THE AREA...FILTERED SUNSHINE HAD WARMED TEMPERATURES
  INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
  TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE AREA...AND
  SKIES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALLOWING
  FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION.

  MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS ENTERING
  CENTRAL KANSAS...ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT.
  THIS DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
  FOR RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND
  EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF
  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH INSTABILITY WILL CAUSE STORMS
  TO RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
  AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
  EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE COMPLEXES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS
  THE COLD FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...POSSIBLY LEADING TO
  FLASH FLOODING.

  BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES MAY BE
  REQUIRED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
  SATURDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.
  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
  FLOODING RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. AS A FOCUSING COLD FRONT
  SHIFTS SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS
  WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA.

  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
  THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY AS MID
  AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS EXTENDING INTO WESTERN
  AND MID MISSOURI. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
  DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. PERSONS INVOLVED IN
  SEVERE WEATHER PREPAREDNESS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR LOCAL OUTLETS
  FOR THE LATER STATEMENTS AND ANY WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

BOOKBINDER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
451 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    1 N MORRISVILLE           MO   70 MPH TSTM GUST
08/01/03   POLK                           REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
455 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0452 PM    2 E OLIVE                 MO   1 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   DALLAS                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    EBENEZER                  MO   .75 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   GREENE                         PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
                                          GUSTS TO 60 MPH. REPORTED
                                          BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

0457 PM    LONGVIEW                  MO   1 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   MCDONALD                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0450 PM    5 N SPRINGFIELD           MO   1 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   GREENE                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
521 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0435 PM    BOLIVAR                   MO   WIND DAMAGE
08/01/03   POLK                           TREE LIMBS AND POWER
                                          LINES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 PM CDT FRI AUG 01 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0528 PM    3 E WILLOW SPRINGS        MO   2.75 INCH HAIL
08/01/03   HOWELL                         BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND
                                          LARGE TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY MEDIA.