Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM

MAIN CONCERNS ARE WITH POTENTIAL ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
WERE REACHED.  JUST STARTING TO SEE PRECIP POPPING UP ON RADAR AT
THIS TIME. WITH AREA LIS -2 TO -6 AND CAPES 1000-2500 J/KG...COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WAS PREVIOUSLY GOING TO PUT A BREAK IN PRECIP WITH EXPECTED MCS
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI...BUT WITH STORMS
ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS TODAY AND BEGINNING TO MAKE A
PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST...WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH TIMING OF STORMS AND
MAY EVEN BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY OVER NORTHWEST ZONES FOR TONIGHT.

WILL CONTINUE 40 TO 50 POPS ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON SINKS SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. SHOULD
ALSO HAVE ABUNDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS AND
DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH MID LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE AREA.
SEE SWODY2 FOR DETAILS.

LONG TERM

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW. THIS WILL WARRANT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES LESS CYCLONIC
BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS UPPER LOW MIGRATES
EASTWARD...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN QUEBEC (GFS) AND THE OHIO VALLEY
(ECMWF). THE ECMWF BUILDS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH
AND EAST...INDICATING A WARMER AND LESS ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR OUR AREA. THE GFS IS ALSO TRENDING TOWARD AND EASTWARD SHIFT IN
THE UPPER RIDGE BUT DOES SO MORE SLOWLY THAN THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL
TREND BACK ON PRECIP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TERRY

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OUR NORTHWEST (OVER NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE).
WILL WATCH RADAR TRENDS WITH CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST FOR
POSSIBLE ADDITION OF STORMS TO TAFS TONIGHT.

AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AM EXPECTING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
DEVELOP AT JLN AND POSSIBLY SGF. ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 35KT @
JLN (30KT @ SGF) AND CONSIDERING THE ETAS BIAS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LLJ WOULD EXPECT THOSE SPEEDS TO BE AT LEAST 5-10KT
STRONGER. SPEED SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL AT SGF...BUT WITH
ANTICIPATING SLIGHT BACKING DUE TO THE FUNNEL EFFECT FEEL THAT IT IS
WORTH INCLUDING. AS LOW LEVEL JET MIXES OUT WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT
GUSTY FOR A TIME TOMORROW MORNING.

IZZI/TERRY
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...NONE.
.KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ISOLATED STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI FROM 2 PM
  TO 8 PM.

  SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND
  WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS
  ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE REGION. THE LACK OF A
  SURFACE FRONT TO FOCUS CONVECTION WILL KEEP STORM DEVELOPMENT
  ISOLATED IN NATURE.

  TO OUR NORTH...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK WILL MOVE OVER THE
  CENTRAL PLAINS...AND STRENGTHEN A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
  NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN KANSAS. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST
  INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT.  A COMPLEX OF
  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...AND
  MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE
  TONIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY...WITH
  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
  ALONG THE FRONT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN
  SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ON FRIDAY.

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
  AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
  PUSH THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

TERRY