Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

WARM MOIST AIR LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST KS
AND NORTHEAST OK. CAPES OFF 18Z SGF SOUNDING APPROACHING 4000 J/KG
WITH HIGHER CAPES LIKELY BACK WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS NOSING
INTO SE KS AND EXTREME SW MO WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
THIS MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD IS ALSO DEPICTED NICELY ON VIS SAT
IMAGERY BY CU FIELD OVER MY WESTERN COUNTIES. SMALL COMPLEX OF
STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL KS AND WEST CENTRAL MO ALSO PUTTING OUT A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO BE TRIGGERED OR DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEAST KS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR THE INCREASINGLY
SHARP DRYLINE IN SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHEAST OK. FLOW IS BACKED
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER FROM THE JOPLIN AND SPRINGFIELD AREA
NORTHWARD ATTM...AND WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS BACKED...AN
ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE...EITHER NORTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE WARM FRONT OR WHERE SMALLER BOUNDARIES LEFT
OVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION WILL ALSO ENHANCE HORIZONTAL VORTICITY.
SYNOPTIC SCALE SHEAR PROFILE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST SUNDAY BUT
GIVEN HIGH CAPES...SUPERCELLS...POSSIBLY TORNADIC...STILL A
POSSIBILITY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A LINEAR MCS THIS EVENING
OVER THE OZARKS BEFORE PUSHING OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK HIGH WILL GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK WEDNESDAY...BUT ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NORTHEAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
TX/OK PANHANDLES WED NIGHT. MCS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH
OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT OVER SE KS AND SOUTHERN MO LATE WED NIGHT
AND THU MORNING. IF THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS SUFFICIENTLY THU
AFTERNOON...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT.

VOLATILE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. ANOTHER
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER LATE SAT
AND SAT NIGHT. USING PRIMARILY THE 00Z GFS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUE NIGHT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF A LINE FROM
VERSAILLES TO GAINESVILLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY 2 PM. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS INCLUDING THE ROLLA AND
WEST PLAINS AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
STORM THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL MOVE
INTO MISSOURI THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH SOME TORNADIC SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FIRST IN COUNTIES ALONG THE
WESTERN MISSOURI STATE LINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE EAST
AND NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. OTHER SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
OZARKS WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND OF ORGANIZED STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WARSAW TO BUFFALO TO FORSYTH THROUGH 7 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
603 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    DIXON                     MO   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/06/03   PULASKI                        3/4 INCH HAIL ALSO
                                          REPORTED. REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0605 PM    LAMAR                     MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   BARTON                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0607 PM    SWEDEBORG                 MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0608 PM    ASBURY                    MO   4.5 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JASPER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
614 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0613 PM    ROLLA                     MO   TORNADO
05/06/03   PHELPS                         REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
616 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0615 PM    LAMAR                     MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   BARTON                         REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
617 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0616 PM    ROLLA                     MO   1 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   PHELPS                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0617 PM    NEOSHO                    MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   NEWTON                         REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.