Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE...

HARD TO BELIEVE...BUT YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST MESOETA
FORECASTS CAPES TO BE BETWEEN 4500 AND 5000 J/KG OVER SE KANSAS AND
FAR SOUTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NM MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SRH IN THE 300
TO 400 RANGE...WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 10 TO 15 F. CAPES ARE
NEARLY DOUBLE WHAT WE SAW SUNDAY...WHILE SRH IS JUST OVER HALF OF
SUNDAYS 5 PM SGF LAUNCH. LCL HEIGHTS OF 5500 FT ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER THAN SUNDAYS 2200 FT VALUES...A NEGATIVE TOWARDS
TORNADOES...BUT MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 TOWARDS EVENING. HUGE CAPES
AND HIGH SRH VALUES SURELY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE
HIGHER LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AS WE SAW SUNDAY...COMPARISON TO THAT EXTREME EVENT MAY
UNDER EMPHASIZE THE RISK. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL UNUSUALLY UNSTABLE
FOR THIS AREA...WITH VERY HIGH SRH OVER A LARGE AREA. MODERATE RISK
WARRANTED AND WILL HIT HARD IN THE HWO AND ALL OTHER APPROPRIATE
PRODUCTS.

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
WEST COAST LONGWAVE SEEMS TO HAVE CONTINUOUS SOURCE OF SHORTWAVES TO
RELOAD AND EJECT. A BREAK MAY COME WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
PUSHED SOUTH INTO ARKANSAS. THIS WILL BE VERY TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS
STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...FIRING
OFF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY AN MCS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE
HAIL...ALONG THE 850 MB BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY NIGHT VERY NEAR US. THIS
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING JUST IN TIME FOR
THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. MORE SEVERE
WEATHER LIKELY WITH THIS FEATURE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BOUNDARY TO LINGER ACROSS REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SO GOING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM REASONABLE. AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT TIMING OF CONVECTION TO REMOVE PRECIP FROM
ANY SPECIFIC PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

BROWNING

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
955 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  AREAS SOUTH OF A CASSVILLE TO EMINENCE LINE OVERNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT NEAR THE ARKANSAS
  BORDER ALONG A STALLED FRONT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
  BUT NO OTHER SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY
  DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THE NEXT CHANCE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
  LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.  SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY
  WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND POSSIBLE
  TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

  ANOTHER MORE POTENT SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER RISK OF SEVERE
  WEATHER ON THURSDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
  ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY
  TORNADOES.

  THOSE INVOLVED IN RECOVERY EFFORTS AND STRUCTURAL REPAIR FOLLOWING
  THE MAY 4TH TORNADO OUTBREAK...SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR MORE
  INCLEMENT WEATHER IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
  STAYED TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION REGARDING THE
  POTENTIAL OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO THE ISOLATED
  NATURE OF THE STORMS.

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TUESDAY MAINLY SOUTH
  OF INTERSTATE 44.

  EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
  FORECASTS CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
  LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 AM    SENECA                    MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   NEWTON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0504 AM    SAGINAW                   MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   NEWTON                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0504 AM    COLUMBUS                  KS   .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   CHEROKEE                       HAIL COVERING GROUND.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.