Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN...

EARLY THIS MORNING...WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...TO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. PROFILERS
INDICATED A 45 TO 60 KT 850 MB JET WAS IMPINGING ON THIS BOUNDARY.
ELEVATED CONVECTION FIRED ACROSS FROM CENTRAL KANSAS NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. SO FAR THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED JUST
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN THE MORNING GRIDS...HAVE 50 POPS
GOING IN MY FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE
MAJORITY OF CONVECTION NORTH OF OUR AREA.

NEXT CONCERN IS THE ONGOING WIND ADVISORY. LOOKS AS IF THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF VERIFYING.  A
SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY INTENSIFY AS A STRONG WAVE PUSHES INTO THE
PLAINS.  OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE TWO FACTORS IN FAVOR OF HIGH
WINDS. THE FIRST IS THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THE
SECOND IS THE MIXING DOWN OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT.  THE MESOETA
INDICATES A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  IF CLOUDS
CLEAR...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED
BY BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.

NOW FOR THE MAIN CONCERN...PARAMETERS SETTING UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IF MORNING CLOUDS
CAN CLEAR OUT.  A DRYLINE WILL SURGE EASTWARD TODAY ACROSS
KANSAS...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND
TRACKS TOWARD IOWA. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  THE MESOETA EVEN SHOWS
THIN BAND OF 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY
21Z. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS 70 DEGREE DEWPOINT VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
THE KAIN-FRITSCH VERSION OF THE ETA INDICATES CONVECTIVE INITIATION
BETWEEN 19Z AND 21Z SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
TIMING LOOKS PRETTY GOOD...AS A STRONG WAVE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE
AREA...ALONG WITH A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THE STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AT THE START OF THE EVENT...AND MAY EVOLVE
INTO A SQUALL LINE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THEY MARCH ACROSS
MISSOURI. IF CLEARING OCCURS...LATE AFTERNOON CAPES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 4000 J/KG ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  PARAMETERS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE
VERY FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENERGY HELICITY INDEX
VALUES RANGE FROM 3 TO 5.5 AT 00Z. IN ADDITION...VGP VALUES RANGE
FROM 0.3 TO 0.45. VALUES ABOVE 0.27 ARE CONSIDERED VERY FAVORABLE.
LOW SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ALSO ADD TO THE TORNADO THREAT...AS
DEPRESSIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 DEG F OR LESS.

.SGF...
MO...WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
KS...WIND ADVISORY TODAY.

SAW

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
609 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
  TORNADOES.

  HIGH WINDS RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ROUND ONE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH
  OF A BOLIVAR TO SALEM LINE THIS MORNING.  HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

  ROUND TWO OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI
  BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
  REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE INTENSE THAN THE MORNING
  STORMS.

  HIGH WINDS ARE LIKELY BY LATE MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF A OSCEOLA
  TO SPRINGFIELD LINE...AND OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY LATE
  AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  EARLY THIS MORNING...A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
  AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET INTERSECTED THIS
  BOUNDARY...CAUSING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
  WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WERE
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.  THESE STORMS
  ARE EXPECTED TO END ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
  BY LATE MORNING.

  THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
  WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS.  THE WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE
  OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  IF MORNING CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO
  BREAK UP...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE. IN
  ADDITION...A VERY POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH OUT OF THE
  PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
  IS EXPECTED  ALONG A DRYLINE NEAR THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDER
  BY MID-AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD...AFFECTING THE
  REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

  THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO PRODUCE HIGH WINDS TODAY.  A
  STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO
  PRODUCE WINDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 MPH...WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 40
  MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS MORNING
  ALONG AND NORTH OF A BOLIVAR TO SALEM LINE.

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG AND WEST OF A
  NEVADA TO ANDERSON LINE AFTER 2 PM...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
  THE OUTLOOK AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

  DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
  SUNDAY...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...STORM
  SPOTTER GROUPS...LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...AND ALL PERSONS WITH
  INTERESTS IN THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR LATER
  FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE   IN
  SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

SAW

MOZ055>058-067>071-079>081-083-041600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
519 AM CDT SUN MAY 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 30...IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BENTON...CAMDEN...DALLAS...DENT...HICKORY...LACLEDE...MARIES...
MILLER...MORGAN...PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI AND ST. CLAIR.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE BOLIVAR...
CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...LEBANON...OSAGE BEACH AND ROLLA.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

BROWNING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0645 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0451 AM    COLLINS                   MO   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   ST CLAIR                       REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0425 AM    APPLETON CITY             MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/04/03   ST.CLAIR                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.