Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1132 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

IN THE SHORT TERM...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND CENTRAL MO LATE THIS MORNING. THIS PUSH SOUTH
WAS AIDED BY LAST NIGHTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER NORTHERN MO.
TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINT SOUTH OF THE FRONT INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD BE
ABLE TO EASILY OVERCOME CAP AT 900 MB THAT WAS PRESENT ON THE SGF
12Z SOUNDING. CUMULUS FIELD ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
IN SOUTHEAST KS AND SW MO. PROGGED SOUNDING INDICATE CAPES OF 2500
J/KG OFF THE MESOETA SOUNDING THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS VERY REASONABLE.
WOULD LOOK FOR REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MAIN THREATS ARE
WIND AND HAIL GIVEN FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WIND PROFILE.

...EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...

FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THU AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRI AND SAT.
PRESENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. ADDED RAIN CHANCES TO
LATE DAY 6 AND DAY 7 (SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY). BOTH THE ECMWF AND
00Z GFS MOVE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. GFS IS ESPECIALLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MONDAY.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

DSA

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-291100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONE INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
OF 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHANUTE KANSAS EAST
TO BOLIVAR AND SALEM. THE SEVERE THREAT TIMING WILL BE FROM 2 TO 10
PM.

  DISCUSSION:

A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING...EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT HAS CAUSED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN STORM THREAT WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND INTO IOWA
ON THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING THE CHANCE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDTIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
UNFOLDING WEATHER SITUATION THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
0853 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0812 AM    STOVER                    MO   .75 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY POST OFFICE
                                          PERSONNEL.

0835 AM    FLORENCE                  MO   .88 INCH HAIL
04/28/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.