Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

CLUSTER OF STORMS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS WHERE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS WEAKENING CAPPING
INVERSION NEAR 850 MB/SURFACE FRONT. TO THE SOUTHWEST ANOTHER AREA
OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA ALONG AXIS OF
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE STRUGGLING
WITH +8 DEGREE CAPPING INVERSION.

MAIN QUESTION FOR TODAY IS HOW ONGOING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
AFFECT OUR PRECIP CHANCES FOR TODAY. AT THIS TIME STORMS TO OUR
NORTH ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. LATEST RADAR IMAGES
SHOW SOME BACKBUILDING BUT NOT TOO SURE THEY WILL BACKBUILD TOO FAR
INTO CAPPING INVERSION. THERE SHOULD BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
SETS UP OVER NORTHWEST MO THAT COULD FIRE UP CONVECTION LATER TODAY
THAT COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
SOLUTION THAT ETA AND GFS ARE PICKING UP ON. NOT SURE IF PRECIP WILL
BE AS WIDESPREAD AND START AS SOON AS MODELS SUGGESTS...BUT
CERTAINLY WORTH LEAVING POPS IN FOR TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTHWEST IS NOT REALLY BEING HANDLED WELL BY
MODELS...BUT IS MOVING IN OUR DIRECTION. SHOULD SEE SOME OF THESE
STORMS IN OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES BEFORE SUNRISE...AND ALSO SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER BOUNDARY FOR STORMS TO FIRE UP ALONG LATER TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HINDERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER WITH
A MUCH WARMER START THIS MORNING...MID TO UPPER 70S STILL LOOK OKAY.

HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY. EVEN
THOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY SHIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MO...CAP
WILL BE WEAKER OVER THE REGION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY ONCE AGAIN BE HANGING AROUND. WENT WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO MAIN SURFACE FRONT.

SURFACE LOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DRYLINE PUSHING INTO EASTERN KANSAS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OCCUR WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH 50 +
KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND CAPES WELL OVER
1000 J/KG OVER WESTERN ZONES.

WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GOING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT
FINALLY CLEARS THE REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. SHAVED TEMPS BACK FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO THE
LOWER 70S.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

TERRY

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RETRANSMITTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT MON APR 28 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...FROM 3 PM TO
  MIDNIGHT.

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING...AS THE MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
  THE REGION INTERACTS WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLY
  MORNING CONVECTION.

  THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT IS A CAPPING
  INVERSION IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE
  INVERSION WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
  MOVES OVER THE REGION.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY FROM TUESDAY
  THROUGH THURSDAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE
  REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 3 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

TERRY