Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
326 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

FRONT SLOWLY MOVING THRU THE REGION THIS AFTN AND SHOULD EXIT EARLY
THIS EVENING.  WITH SOME ENERGY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL KEEP
LINGERING TSRA/SHRA TO THE THESE AREAS.  REST OF TONIGHT...DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN WITH COOLING TEMPS.

SUN...WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE AREA MAY PRODUCE SCT CLOUDS MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.  WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND WEAK WAA IN THE AFTN...TEMPS
WILL REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.  SUN NIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THE NORTH AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES
PLACE...TEMPS WILL BE SEASONAL IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

MON...COLD FNT LINGER IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND BACK INTO THE MIDWEST.
BEST LIFT AND ENERGY IS WITH THE FRONT.  JET DYNAMICS ARE WEAK IN
OUR REGION BUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING A FEW TSRA COULD POP IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN.  ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO LIMIT STORM ACTIVE
IN THE EAST...HOWEVER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED TSRA GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR.  MON NIGHT...FRONT STILL FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST
AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...PCPN ACTIVE CONFIDED TO EVENING.  GFS
06Z/19 SLOW AGAIN WITH FRONTAL SPEED AND GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR...LOOKS REASONABLE.

EXTENDED...
MODELS CONSISTENT WITH PCPN TUE-THU OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
TUE...FRONT WEST OF THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING AND LINGERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY.  UNSEASONABLE STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD.  JET DYNAMICS LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG
AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION TUE.  WITH CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS...HAVE
RAISED POPS TUE AFTN/EVENING TO LIKELY.  THIS WILL BE THE BEST DAY
FOR SVR WX WITH HVY DOWNPOURS...HAIL...AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE.
TUE NIGHT...FRONT EDGES TO THE EAST COAST AND STALLS.  HI PRESSURE
OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP BNDRY NEAR CWA AND ON GOING CHC OF PCPN
THRU WED...THEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO SWING THRU THE REGION THU
DAYTIME.  HI PRESSURE IN THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT
WEEKEND.  ONLY MAJOR CHANGES...WAS TO WARM TUE MAX UP WITH SLOWER
FRONT AND RAISED TUE POPS TO LIKELY.

ROA   63  87  67  90 /  10   0   0  10
LYH   62  87  66  89 /  20   0   0  10
DAN   66  89  68  91 /  30   0   0  10
BLF   59  80  64  81 /   0   0   0  30
LWB   58  81  60  82 /   0   0   0  30
BCB   59  84  64  86 /   0   0   0  30
TNB   60  81  64  82 /  30   0   0  30

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

RCS

NCZ001>006-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-201100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1055 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MID
AFTERNOON...A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY. REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
IS INSIDE.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A VIGOROUS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE TIME
OF DAY THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH...WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SK

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032-043-044-058-059-192115-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1045 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...AND
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO FAR SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA BY MID
AFTERNOON...A FEW COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS ARE
ALSO A POSSIBILITY. REMEMBER...ALL THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING...AND THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH
IS INSIDE.

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

KEIGHTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1215 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0925 PM    NEW CANTON                VA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   BUCKINGHAM                     SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON
                                          ROUTE 670. REPORTED
                                          BY BUCKINGHAM SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.

0935 PM    8NE DILLWYN               VA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   BUCKINGHAM                     TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 622
                                          EAST OF ROUTE 15.
                                          REPORTED BY BUCKINGHAM
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ016-017-032-043-044-058-192100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
213 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA...
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...AND ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
20 MPH. SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA AND THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS CAN EXPECT
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. A FEW OF THE STORM
MAY STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...OR PENNY SIZED
OR LARGER HAIL.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
FURTHER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0210 PM    MOUNT AIRY                NC   WIND DAMAGE
07/19/03   SURRY                          A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY SURRY COUNTY
                                          911.