Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
404 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS KICKING OFF THIS AFTN TO OUR SOUTH AND
NORTH.  THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD IN AREAL COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTN
AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  THE 850 FRONT WILL LINGER BACK INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT...THEN MOVE THRU THE REGION MR.  RAIN WITH
THIS FRONT TONIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY AND HAVE REDUCED POPS TO CHC
WITH HIGH CHC ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.  SAT...850 FRONT TO MOVE
THRU THE REGION DURING THE DAY WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL
BE ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER.  PCPN WILL TAPER OFF FROM SE WV IN THE
MORNING TO EARLY SAT EVENING IN SE CWA.  CLEARING SKIES WITH DRIER
AIR TO FOLLOW SAT NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SW...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO MR MORNING.  TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 60S.  SAT...COOLER
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.  SAT NIGHT THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT...NICE BREAK FROM THE HEAT OF SUMMER WITH MILDER TEMPS.

EXTENDED...
MONDAY...A WARM FRONT TO MOVE THRU THE REGION BRING AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WITH A CHC FOR AFTN AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  THEN ON
TUE...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE AREA.  TIMING PLACE THE
FRONT JUST TO THE WEST OF SE WV MON AT 12Z.  06Z GFS SLOWING FRONTAL
SPEED DOWN A FEW HOURS COMPARED TO 00Z.  LIKING THIS TREND AND HELD
OFF BETTER POPS UNTIL TUE AFTN.  FRONT MOVES THRU THE REGION TUE
NIGHT.  06Z GFS LINGERS FRONT ALONG EASTERN EDGE OF CWA WITH A
RIDING WAVE TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AFTN AND WED NIGHT...THEN THU DAYTIME...UPPER LEVEL S/WV
TO BRING PCPN THRU THE REGION.  00Z GFS MOVES FRONT FARTHER ALONG
THE EAST COAST...DRYING THE REGION WED NIGHT AND THU.  AGAIN LIKING
THE 06Z RUN AND WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST TUE-THU...DRY
THU NIGHT ON WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

ROA   67  84  64  86 /  40  20  10  10
LYH   67  85  62  86 /  40  20  10  10
DAN   68  86  66  87 /  50  40  30  10
BLF   61  76  59  79 /  40  20  10  10
LWB   60  75  56  79 /  40  20  10  10
BCB   62  80  58  81 /  40  20  10  10
TNB   63  78  58  79 /  40  40  30  10

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

RCS

NCZ001>006-018-019-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
557 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM BROOKNEAL IN
CHARLOTTE COUNTY VIRGINIA...THROUGH MARTINSVILLE IN HENRY COUNTY
VIRGINIA...TO BOONE IN WATAUGA COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST WEST
VIRGINIA LATE TODAY...AND THROUGH SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT.  OTHER SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF AN
OLD AND NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND
NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AFTER 300 PM EDT AND BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DIME OR LARGER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 60
MPH.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
BY MID EVENING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

THIS PRODUCT CAN BE VIEWED ON THE BLACKSBURG OFFICE INTERNET PAGE AT
WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/RNK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WERT

NCZ003-019-VAZ016-032-182245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
457PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...STRONG STORMS WITH DEADLY LIGHTNING HAVE DEVELOPED..

AT 4:57 PM RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT
DEADLY LIGHTING. EXPECT RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR
WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MILES AN
HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 6:00 PM.

RMG