Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Reno, NV

WESTERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
210 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2003

CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL IN EASTERN CA. THIS AREA IS IN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH UNTIL 9 PM ALONG WITH ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN NV. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS PROVIDING DYNAMICS FOR THE CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEAST
CA AND NORTHWEST NV THURSDAY BUT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO REMOVE ALL
THE MOISTURE THAT IS IN PLACE. HAVE RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE ALL
ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST ON FRIDAY
TURNS THE FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AGAIN AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR ALL ZONES. ON SATURDAY THE
INSTABILITY MOVES SLIGHTLY EAST WITH SOME CONVECTION MENTIONED IN
PERSHING...CHURCHILL AND MINERAL COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WHICH REMAIN
VERY HOT TODAY COOL GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MID 90S WESTERN NV VALLEYS BY SATURDAY
BUT THIS IS STILL AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. RC

IN THE EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LATEST GFS MODEL
HAD LIMITED MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY STABLE CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
WORDING OF THUNDER WILL BE REMOVED WITH ONLY 10 PERCENT CHANCES IN
THE EASTERN ZONES. ELSEWHERE DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
GENERAL CONSISTENCY FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...SUGGESTING A WETTER
PATTERN AS IT BUILDS THE UPPER HIGH BACK TO EASTERN NEVADA AND THEN
PIVOTS IT NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN
SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND MIGHT EVEN DRAW UP SOME
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY WAVE WORKING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO FOR 1-2 DAYS BEYOND THE CURRENT EXTENDED PERIOD. THE NOGAPS
AND ECMWF SHOW SOME RESEMBLANCE OF THIS PATTERN ALTHOUGH ARE NOT
QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE. MEANWHILE THE CANADIAN BUILDS THE HIGH RIGHT
OVER NEVADA AND PARKS IT THERE. THE GFS SOLUTION WILL REMAIN THE
PREFERRED GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST AS OVERALL CONSISTENCY WAS
MAINTAINED WITH THE LATEST RUN. SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP
CHANCES WERE TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT CHANCE ON MONDAY NORTHWARD TO NEAR
HIGHWAY 50...AND INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ON TUESDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS BUT FEWER 100 DEGREE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. MJD

.REV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 900 PM PDT NVZ002-003-005 AND
CAZ070>073.

CAZ070>073-NVZ001>005-241400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
650 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEVADA...THE EASTERN
SIERRA AND NORTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY...SEE THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH BULLETIN FROM KREV/
WGUS65 KREV FFAREV/ FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS AND BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE THREAT OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE
BEGINNING THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND
RELATED MESSAGES AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY.
IN ADDITION...WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.