Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
250 PM AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

MSTR CONT TO INCREASE THRU THE COLUMN THIS AFTN. PWAT INCREASED OVER
A HALF INCH IN THE PAST 25 HOURS AND SHOULD BE JUST UNDER 2 INCHES
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP SHRA/TSTMS IN THE 50-70 POP RANGE
FOR TNT AS FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE TRIAD BY MORNING AND THEN
BECOME STATIONARY.

WED...UPPER TROUGH CONT TO DIG S AND IS BECOMING RATHER CONCERNING.
CENTRAL NC AND THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL FALL UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF A NEXITING JET STREAK LIFTING NORTH ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. ETA SUGGEST BEST UPPER DIVRG WILL BE IN THE EAST HOWECER
MODELS HANG THE SURFACE BNDRY UP TO THE W ACROSS THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. A STRONG H5 VORT WILL SWING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH LATE IN THE AFTN WED ENHANCING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE DECENT SPEED SHEAR IN THE LOW
LEVELS AND COULD SUPPORT LINES OF STORMS AS WELL AS TRAINING STORMS
RESULTING IN SOME HIGH WINDS AND FLOODING. PWAT WILL BE JUST UNDER 2
INCHES WED AND STORMS WILL EASLIY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. GFS BRINGS A DRY SLOT INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WED AFTN
AND ETA GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON POPS A LITTLE SO WILL BACK
OFF ON CURRENT CATEGORICAL POPS AND GO WITH A 60-70 POP FOR WED
MONTIONING NUMEROUS SHRA/TSTMS FROM RALEIGH EAST WITH LOWER POPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT.

ETA BRINGS THE DRY SLOT ACROSS THE PIEDMONG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WED WITH A CONT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. GFS HOLDS THE MSTR IN A LITTLE LONGER
AND KEEPS SFC BNDRY IN THE PIEDMONT. WILL KEEP SHRA/TSTMS IN THE
FCST FOR WED NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FROM THE TRIANGLE EAST.

THU...MODELS DIFFER QUITE A BIT FOR THU. ETA TAKES SFC BNDRY TO THE
COAST WITH DRIER WLY WINDS SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE GFS
CONT TO KEEP THE SFC BNDRY IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WITH MSTR
CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMIONT AND ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL
PLAIN.

FRI THRU SUN...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W WITH TEMPS CLIMBING
BACK TO AROUND 90.  LITTLE TO NO MENTION OF RAIN SO FAR FOR THE
WEEKEND.

MON AND TUE...AN UPPER TROUGH AGAIN DIGS S ACROSS THE EAST BRINING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSTME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.RAH...NONE.

ORROCK/HUMBLE

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-221230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
550 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PUMP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF STATES
INTO NORTH CAROLINA. WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S... AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S... THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL... BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60
MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION... SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL... ESPECIALLY WHERE TWO OR MORE STORMS PASS OVER THE SAME
AREA. ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE OVER TWO INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT.
SUCH TOTALS MAY PRODUCE FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS WHERE
DRAINAGE IS POOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT...
AND STALL OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY JETS OF WIND IN BOTH THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE TO PRODUCE
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE... WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HAIL. THE FRONT WILL
REMAINED STALLED AND WEAKEN OVER THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF THE SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 12 NOON
TODAY.

GIH

NCZ021>024-038-039-222215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
515 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2003

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE
WINSTON-SALEM... LEXINGTON... HIGH ROCK AREAS...

AT 514 PM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH OUT OF SURRY... YADKIN... AND IREDELL
COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CLEMMONS AREA BEFORE 530
PM... AND WINSTON-SALEM BEFORE 545 PM. IN ADDITION... THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF DAVIDSON COUNTY INCLUDING HIGH ROCK LAKE
AND LEXINGTON BETWEEN 530 PM AND 600 PM. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING... VERY HEAVY RAIN FOR 20 TO 30
MINUTES... AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

EVERYONE IN THE PIEDMONT TRIAD REGION... INCLUDING THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS SHOULD BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
WHEN THUNDER IS FIRST HEARD. IF A WARNING IS ISSUED... SEEK SHELTER
IN AN INTERIOR ROOM... AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT GREENSBORO... ASHEBORO... AND BURLINGTON
BETWEEN 545 PM AND 645 PM.

BADGETT