Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

CURRENT PROBLEM IS FORECAST OF MCS IN TENNESSEE. GUIDANCE AND
REALITY SUGGEST THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP INTO THE
NORTH PARTS OF THE GULF STATES. NICE LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED ON
THE EAST SLOPES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE LEADING BOUNDARY AHEAD OF
MCS AND EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO FIRE AS THIS PUSHES INTO OUR WEST
AREA PRIOR TO 00Z. WILL INCREASE TONIGHT POPS TO HIGH CHANCE IN THE
WEST EARLY AND CHANCE EAST TRAILING OFF TOWARD MIDNIGHT.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HARD TO GET A HANDLE
ON. ONLY THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE A
FEATURE ONE CAN BET ON WITH SUBSYNOPTIC FEATURES ON THE MODELS
CHANGING WITH EACH RUN. THUS THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGH CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

SEE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE DEPARTING/DISSIPATING LONG WAVE TROUGH...HEIGHTS BUILD
RAPIDLY ALOFT FRIDAY TO STABILIZE AND DRY MID TO UPPER LEVELS.
EXCEPT FOR A RESIDUAL LATE DAY THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE REMNANT SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WE SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS
CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY FRIDAY. AN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH ACROSS
THE GULF STATES SHOULD KEEP DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTION TO A MINIMUM IN
CENTRAL NC OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY MIDDAY SKIES TO NEAR 90 OR LOWER 90S EACH DAY. BY
MONDAY...MODELS ARE LEADING INTO A LONG WAVE TROUGH EVOLVING OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS SUFFICIENT FOR
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON INTO MON NIGHT. -RFG

.RAH...NONE.

RLH

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
449 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY...
AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY
SOME LARGE HAIL. FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NCZ038-073-220130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
835 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH DAVIDSON AND STANLY
COUNTIES THROUGH 930 PM EDT INCLUDING HIGH ROCK LAKE...

AT 833 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING HIGH ROCK LAKE FROM THE SALISBURY AREA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING... GUSTY WINDS TO
40 MPH... AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.

ALL PEOPLE WITH INTERESTS ON AND NEAR HIGH ROCK LAKE OR THE YADKIN
RIVER SHOULD RESPOND NOW TO MOVE TO SHELTER.

GUSTY WINDS UP OF 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

IN ADDITION... STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF STANLY COUNTY
INCLUDING BADIN LAKE BEFORE 915 PM.

SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM THE WINDOWS. BOATERS SEEK
SAFE HARBOR NOW. IF YOU CANNOT SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AUTOMOBILES CAN
PROVIDE ADEQUATE SHELTER.

BADGETT