Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

UPDATE TO HEADLINE THE TORNADO WATCH AND TWEAK THIS AFTERNOONS
WORDING. REMAINDER UNCHANGED.

.RAH...TORNADO WATCH FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 400 PM.

MLM

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-221220-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
523 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALBEMARLE...CARTHAGE...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...TO SMITHFIELD TO
ROCKY MOUNT WILSON.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.  THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 TO 65 MPH...DOWNING
TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES AND POSSIBLY SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE.
ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED AND URBAN FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY 11 AM IN THE TRIAD
REGION.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER OF
ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

RA

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-221700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
447 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG WINDS OVER
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY 10 AM IN THE
TRIAD REGION.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER
OF ANY KIND TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GULF WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION  INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY LATER TODAY. INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL FEED INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CROSSING THE STATE OVERNIGHT.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA TODAY...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALBEMARLE...CARTHAGE...SANFORD...LILLINGTON...TO SMITHFIELD TO
ROCKY MOUNT WILSON.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS.  THESE WINDS MAY GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 TO 65 MPH...DOWNING
TREE LIMBS AND POWERLINES AND POSSIBLY SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE.
ADDITIONALLY SOME OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED AND URBAN FLOODING.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS COULD START IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT
COUNTIES INCLUDING THE TRIAD AREA AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST INTO THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THEN DIMINISH.  FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PIEDMONT AS WELL AS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN
INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA...FAYETTEVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT AND
GOLDSBORO...THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE GREATEST BETWEEN 2
PM AND 8 PM.

BEGINNING THIS MORNING MAINLY FROM MID MORNING ON...LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCIES... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND RESIDENTS OF
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST STATEMENTS
AND THE LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. GO OVER PREPAREDNESS PLANS NOW
BEFORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED...AND BEFORE
SEVERE WEATHER IS SPOTTED IN YOUR AREA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

RA

NCZ021-022-038-221700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1027 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2003

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM...

...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING LATE THIS
MORNING IN THE TRIAD AREA...

THUNDERSTORMS AND VERY HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE
NORTHWEST PIEDMONT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85 THROUGH NOON.
THIS INCLUDES THE TRIAD AREA.

RADAR ESTIMATES THAT UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN DURING THE
PAST HOUR SOUTHWEST OF HIGH POINT IN THE THOMASVILLE AND LEXINGTON
AREAS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL RANGE UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH
NOON TODAY. FLOODING WILL THUS BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN
AREAS... INCLUDING WINSTON SALEM...GREENSBORO...HIGH POINT...
THOMASVILLE AND LEXINGTON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.