Special Marine Warning 11, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
225 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

WELCOME TO OFFICIAL SUMMER AT 310 THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT
FEEL LIKE SUMMER...BY TUESDAY...THAT WILL CHANGE.

THE BIG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING. AREAS
IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE BANDED PCPN MOVING IN
FROM THE OCEAN. WITHIN THE LOW AND TO THE SW...WHAT DAYTIME HEATING
WE DID GET TODAY IS FORMING MORE CONVCTN. THEREFORE...WITH THE
GROUND SATURATED...I WILL KEEP THE FFA IN EFFECT.

THE LOW GRADUALLY HEAD NE PUTTING THE FCST AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW. MODELS SHOW SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. BUT CONSIDERING THE
TIME OF YEAR...AND THE FACT THAT TODAYS PCPN HAS BEEN DIURNALLY
AFFECTED W OF THE UPPER LOW...I WILL FCST MAINLY AFTN/EVENING SHWERS
AND TSTMS ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

THEN CNVCTN DIES DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOST OF MONDAY. FOR MONDAY
AFTN...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE UNSTABLE ENUF THAT WHEN COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SCATTERED TSTMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS TIME...I DONT THINK IT WILL BE VERY WIDESPREAD
AND MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WE GET A PATTERN CHANGE. HIGH PRES FORMS
OVER NRN VA WHILE HOT AIR FROM THE UPPER PLAINS MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND NW. WE SHOULD GET OUR FIRST 90 OF THE SEASON IN MOST AREAS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE COAST.

THU...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE PSBLTY OF AFTN/EVENING PCPN.

FCSTID =    9
MPO   52  68  54  84 /  90  70  70  20
ABE   56  73  57  86 /  80  70  70  20
RDG   56  74  57  86 /  80  70  70  20
PHL   59  75  63  86 /  80  50  50  20
12N   56  69  57  87 /  90  70  70  20
SMQ   56  74  58  86 /  90  70  70  20
TTN   56  74  59  86 /  90  60  60  20
MIV   57  74  58  86 /  70  40  40  20
ACY   57  71  61  81 /  50  40  40  20
ILG   57  74  60  86 /  80  40  40  20
DOV   57  74  60  86 /  50  40  40  20
GED   56  74  58  86 /  50  40  40  20
ESN   57  75  61  85 /  50  40  40  20

.PHI...
DE...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONE DEZ001.

MD...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONE MDZ008.

NJ...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES NJZ001...NJZ007>010...
NJZ012>019.

PA...FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
PAZ054>055...PAZ060>062...PAZ067>071.

RNS

RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
550 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WATER LEVELS ON NUMEROUS SMALL STREAMS IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN DELAWARE REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS MORNING AS A RESULT
OF HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY. SEE FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS UNDER WMO
HEADER /WGUS41 KPHI/ FOR MORE DETAILS.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA....MOST OF NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST MARYLAND. MORNING SHOWERS WILL GIVE WAY TO THUNDERSTORMS
AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH
STREAMS IN THE REGION ALREADY HIGH FROM RECENT RAINS...ANY
ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL PRODUCE FLOODING. SEE
FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT UNDER WMO HEADER /WGUS61 KPHI/ FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST
TODAY AND A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE DELAWARE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JJM