Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
748 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2003

WL UPDATE THE ZONES/RDF TO ADD A CHC OF RW/TRW FOR THE OVRNGT PD...
AS S/WV ROTATG UP FM THE SW MAY SET OFF MORE CONVTV ACTIVITY DURG
THE OVERNIGHT PD. WL ALSO SAY SOMEW HVY RAIN PSBL BUT NOT OVERPLAY
IT JUST YET. THIS WL MESH BETTER WITH LWX/AKQ. WL SAY CHC ANY TIME
FOR FAR NWRN ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY IS NOW OCCURRG...AND CHC MAINLY
AFT MIDN ELSW. UPDATED THE GRIDS/MATRICES. OTHERWISE WL CONT WITH
AREAS OF FOG OVRNGT. NO SIG CHG TO MINS AT THIS POINT.

.PHI...
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...

PREV AFD BLO...

******************************************************************

MORE OF THE SAME CONTINUING WITH THE ENHANCED DIURNAL TREND TO ANY
DVLPG SHWRS AND TSTMS. BEYOND THE FIRST 36 HRS...TIMING OF SHORT
WAVES IS NOT AS RELIABLE BY THE MODELS...SO I GENLY KEPT THE DIURNAL
TREND WITH CHC POPS AS PREVIOUSLY FCST.

WITH THE MODELS MOST RELIABLE IN THE SHORT TERM...THE GFS SHOWS
SIGNIFICANT CONFLUENCE ALFT THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE
DVLPMT OF EVENING TSTM DVLPMNT...SO ONLY CHC POPS THIS EVENING. THE
SHORT WAVES TO THE SOUTH GENLY SPLIT WITH THE ONE OVER EASTERN NC
HEADING OUT OVER THE OCEAN...WHILE THE ONE IN WRN NC HEADING N TO
WESTERN PA TNGT. THIS PUTS THE FCST AREA BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS AND
GENLY DRY TNGT.

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW FOG TO FORM LATE TNGT...THIS
FOG COULD BECOME DENSE.

LONG RANGE...THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PRVSLY FCST TO MOVE THROUGH TUE
LOOKS TO BE DELAYED TO LATER IN THE WEEK.

SEAS ARE DOWN SO WILL DISC SCA ON THE COAST.

FCSTID =    9
MPO   65  77  65  78 /  40  60  30  40
ABE   68  82  67  82 /  30  60  40  40
RDG   68  82  68  82 /  40  60  40  40
PHL   72  84  72  85 /  30  60  40  40
12N   67  78  66  80 /  40  60  30  40
SMQ   70  83  70  85 /  40  60  40  40
TTN   70  83  70  85 /  40  60  40  40
MIV   70  84  70  85 /  50  60  40  40
ACY   70  81  70  81 /  50  60  40  40
ILG   71  84  70  85 /  40  60  40  40
DOV   70  85  70  85 /  40  60  40  40
GED   70  85  70  85 /  40  60  40  40
ESN   71  83  70  85 /  30  60  40  40

RNS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
555 AM EDT SUN AUG 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT AT THE PRESENT TIME...
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY NEAR JETTIES AND HARD
STRUCTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS...ESPECIALLY
DURING A RISING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NJZ001-110300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
855 PM EDT SUN AUG 10 2003

...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY...

HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE ESTIMATED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR TO
BE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES BETWEEN 745 AND 845 PM OVER NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF SUSSEX COUNTY...AND UP TO 3 INCHES IN AN ISOLATED
LOCATION NEAR MIDDLEVILLE AND SWARTSWOOD NEAR THE DELAWARE RIVER AND
WARREN COUNTY LINE. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR THROUGH SUSSEX COUNTY THROUGH 1000 PM.

MOTORISTS SHOULD WATCH FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND SLOW DOWN.
AREA RESIDENTS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR RISING WATER NEAR SMALL
STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL AS IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

TUNE TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET FOR FURTHER
UPDATES. FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ER/PHI (IN LOWERCASE LETTERS).