Flash Flood Warning 34, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

DISC: IF IT RAINS AT PHL TODAY WE TIE FOR THE # OF CONSECUTIVE DAYS
OF RAIN AT 16 SET IN MARCH 1898. WITH ALL THE RAIN I WENT BACK TO
JULY 15TH JUST TO MAKE SURE IT DIDNT RAIN THAT DAY. IT DIDNT. AS
YOU KNOW LEGEND HAS IT THAT IF IF RAINS ON JULY 15TH (ST. SWITHINS
DAY) IT WILL CONTINUE TO RAIN FOR 40 DAYS

ANYWAY...THE FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
ACTIVITY THAT WILL PRODUCE THE DOWNSPOURS IS PRESENTLY ALONG THE
SRN DE COAST AND SHWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NRN MD. FFGS ARE
AROUND AN INCH/HR IN SOME LOCATIONS.

PATTERN CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE DAYS BEFORE WE APPROACH WHAT MAY
BE A NICE WEEKEND. MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT AS WERN ATLC RDG BREAKS
DOWN AND RETROGRADES TO HEARTLAND. UPPER FLOW LOOKING MORE REASONABLE
FOR AUG WITH HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER 48 AND A ZONAL FLOW OVER
CANADA.

QUIET ON THE MARINE SIDE.

HAVE A GOOD DAY

EBERWINE

*******************
A SMWHT BUSY NGT AGN...WITH ISOLD HVY SHWRS/TSTMS ARND. BASED ON
WHAT HAS HAPPENED...PROGD SHORT WAVE LTR TDA...AND TALK WITH
SURROUNDING OFCS...AM RAISING FLOOD WATCHES FM THE PHILLY AREA N
AND W INTO TNGT.

PROGS SEEM TO AGREE THAT WRN ATLC RDG NOSES W A BIT MORE THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SO WHILE THERE WL STILL BE A THT OF LCL HVY RAINS...THINK
THAT THE CNVTV ACTVTY SHOULD LESSEN A BIT. GOING WITH GENLY MINIMAL
CHC POPS TNGT THRU THU.

BYD THAT...GFS SHOWING BACKDOOR FNT PUSHING DOWN FRI. WELL SEE...
BUT SUPPOSE IT WL HAVE TO DRY OUT EVENTUALLY. KEEPING FRI THRU SUN
PD DRY IN ZONES...BUT CHGG MSTLY CLR FRI TO PTLY CLDY...WHICH
SEEMS TO MESH BTR WITH OVERALL PICTURE.

DID A LTL CHECKING ERY IN THE SHIFT. IT APPRS THAT KPHL HAS HAD
MEASURABLE PCPN (>=0.01) ON 100 DAYS SO FAR IN 2003. NORMALLY...THE
TOTAL FOR THE WHOLE YEAR IS ONLY 115 DAYS. BUT TOTAL PCPN WISE...
WERE ONLY ABT 12 PERCENT ABV NRML FOR THE YEAR SO FAR.

NOTHING ON THE MARINE.

ZONES SHOULD FLY ABT 415 AM...BARRING ANY MORE FLOOD WRNGS.

.PHI...FLOOD WATCH INTO TNGT PA54-55,60-62,67-71
        NJ1,7-10,12,15-19 MD8,12 DE1

KRAUS

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
600 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA...DELAWARE...THE NORTHERN MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...AND
NEW JERSEY EXCLUDING THE FIVE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED INTO TONIGHT FROM THE PHILADELPHIA
METRO AREA NORTH AND WEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS HAVE FALLEN ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TODAY.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY NEAR JETTIES AND HARD
STRUCTURES ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS...ESPECIALLY
DURING A RISING TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.