Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Paducah, KY

April 4, 2003Butler County, Missouri

NWS Paducah, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Apr 4, 2003, 6:38 PM CST for Butler County, Missouri. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 4, 2003, 6:38 PM CST (00:38 UTC)
Expired: Apr 4, 2003, 7:15 PM CST
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Paducah, KY
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Butler County, MO

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 148 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Apr 4, 4:25 PM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 218 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 526 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1487 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.1
Supercell composite: 0.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

223 
WUUS53 KPAH 050038
SVRPAH
MOC023-050115-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
638 PM CST FRI APR 4 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* UNTIL 715 PM CST

* AT 638 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM HENDRICKSON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF POPLAR BLUFF...OR FROM 12 MILES NORTH OF POPLAR BLUFF TO 10
  MILES SOUTHWEST OF POPLAR BLUFF...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE...
  OVER POPLAR BLUFF AT 645 PM CST

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. TAKE COVER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAN PRODUCE A TORNADO WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. A BASEMENT
OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY STRUCTURE
OFFERS THE BEST PROTECTION.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE
COVER IN A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3662 9059 3669 9063 3675 9063 3692 9054
          3692 9027 3687 9026 3685 9023 3678 9022
          3671 9016 3664 9016

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Apr 4, 4:15 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 4, 4:15 PM CST, 2 hours 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
415 PM CST FRI APR 4 2003

RUNNING WAY BEHIND TODAY...SO WILL BE BRIEF.  MAIN PROBLEM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

MOST OF THE CWA HAS BEEN COVERED IN CLOUDS ALL DAY...BUT SOME
CLEARING IS FINALLY WORKING INTO FAR WESTERN ZONES.  THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY ERUPTED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHEAST INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THIS AREA HAS BEEN CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR MORE DESTABILIZATION.  IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
THIS AREA OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL WORK EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL COUNT ON THE STORMS MAINTAINING STRENGTH AS THEY
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.  CELLULAR STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH.  THE CONVECTION IS THEN
EXPECTED TO LINE OUT AS OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO ORGANIZE...AND BOW ECHOES
AND WIND DAMAGE BECOME THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING.  THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE OVER IN
EASTERN SECTIONS BY MIDNIGHT...AND THE RAINFALL SHOULD BE DONE BY
EARLY MORNING.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY...AS A NICE SURFACE
HIGH BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.  WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS
BACK ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME RAIN
POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE.  INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND A
COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW APPROACH.  WILL MENTION THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE FRONTAL PRECIPITATION MOVES IN...BUT LIKELIES LOOK OK.
AFTER A LINGERING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EARLY MONDAY...THE REST OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY.

IN THE EXTENDED WILL NOT BITE ON THE 00Z GFS/S CUT OFF LOW...WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z GFS RUN.

.PAH...NONE.

DRS

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 4, 12:02 PM CST, 6 hours 36 minutes before

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-051100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1202 PM CST FRI APR 4 2003

...A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...UNTIL SUNRISE

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
FRAME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

HOOPER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 4, 4:45 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
445 PM CST FRI APR 04 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0439 PM    FREEMONT                  MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/03   CARTER                         REPORTED BY FIRE
                                          DEPARTMENT

Local storm report, Apr 4, 4:52 PM CST, 1 hour 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CST FRI APR 04 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0445 PM    VAN BUREN                 MO   0.75 INCH HAIL
04/04/03   CARTER                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS

Local storm report, Apr 4, 6:07 PM CST, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 PM CST FRI APR 04 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0555 PM    12E VAN BUREN             MO   1.00 INCH HAIL
04/04/03   CARTER                         REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS ON HWY 60
                                          BETWEEN VAN BUREN AND
                                          ELLSINORE

The office that day

Everything else NWS Paducah, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 4, 6:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Bollinger	36 min
Apr 4, 7:13 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Butler	32 min
Apr 4, 7:19 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Stoddard	56 min
Apr 4, 7:37 PM CST	Tornado Warning	PAH	Stoddard	38 min
Apr 4, 7:49 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Scott	26 min
Apr 4, 8:05 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	40 min
Apr 4, 8:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PAH	Mississippi, New Madrid	46 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.