Severe Thunderstorm Warning 617, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
348 CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER SWRN SECS OF THE FA WHERE MDT
LOW LVL JET INTERACTING WITH SFC BNDRY. EXPECT TSTMS TO GRDLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MRNG WITH WEAKENING LOW LVL JET. ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS S/W MOVING INTO NM THIS MORNING
APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE IN
SWRN SECS OF THE FA WHERE SYN SCALE SFC BNDRY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
AS S/W COMES OUT. VERY UNSTABLE AMS WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BNDRY BY AFTN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SFC
BNDRY WILL BE THIS AFTN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY PUSH EFFECTIVE BNDRY
FARTHER S AND W. AT ANY RATE LOOKS LIKE BEST CHCS FOR TSTMS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA AND WILL TAPER
POPS ACCORDINGLY. S/W GRDLY DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPR BLDG
THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT SLOW MOVING UPR
LOW GRDLY EVOLVES OVER SERN OK BY SUNDAY WITH WEAK SFC RDG PUSHING
INTO THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRDLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN AND WRN
SECS OF THE FA AS THIS OCCURS. THIS FEATURE GRDLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH UPR RDG BEGINNING
TO BUILD EWD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WARMER TMPS WITH LOW PRECIP
THREAT EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

OKC   86   67   86   65  / 40   40   30   30
HBR   89   68   86   66  / 60   50   40   30
SPS   90   69   87   68  / 60   70   40   40
GAG   87   63   84   60  / 60   50   40   30
PNC   85   65   86   64  / 20   20   20   20
DUA   89   70   86   68  / 60   50   50   50

FORECAST ID = 02

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1153 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL...AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATIONS...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ERICK...TO
LAWTON...TO RYAN. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM
THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY GOLFBALL SIZE
OR LARGER...WHICH COULD DAMAGE VEGETATION...AUTOMOBILES...AND OTHER
PERSONAL PROPERTY.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO A CHILDRESS...TO ABILINE LINE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...WEAKENING THE CAPPING
INVERSION...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE DRYLINE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL NOT BE THAT
STRONG...EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY...NORTH
OF THE DRYLINE...FROM THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...NORTHWARD INTO
COLORADO.

DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY JUN 12.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN REMAINS A GOOD BET WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND WET
GROUND...THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR RAPID RUNOFF AND ASSOCIATED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES AREAWIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
AREAWIDE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
RECENT RAINFALL...ALONG WITH PROSPECTS FOR ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD
RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING OF RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN A FLOOD POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

NOTE...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK CAN BE FOUND UNDER PRODUCT ID
OKCESFOKC.
JAMES

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1234 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1232 AM    1 S IOWA PARK             TX   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   WICHITA                        SPOTTER REPORT.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0408 AM    6 N FREDERICK             OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   TILLMAN                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0417 AM    2 E MANITOU               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   TILLMAN                        SPOTTER REPORT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 AM    4 SE HOBART               OK   62 MPH WIND GUST
06/13/03   KIOWA                          MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

KT