Severe Thunderstorm Warning 618, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
348 CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

CONVECTION ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER SWRN SECS OF THE FA WHERE MDT
LOW LVL JET INTERACTING WITH SFC BNDRY. EXPECT TSTMS TO GRDLY
DIMINISH LATER THIS MRNG WITH WEAKENING LOW LVL JET. ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS S/W MOVING INTO NM THIS MORNING
APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS TONIGHT. MAIN FOCUS AGAIN LOOKS TO BE IN
SWRN SECS OF THE FA WHERE SYN SCALE SFC BNDRY EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED
AS S/W COMES OUT. VERY UNSTABLE AMS WILL BE IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
BNDRY BY AFTN. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE SFC
BNDRY WILL BE THIS AFTN AS CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY PUSH EFFECTIVE BNDRY
FARTHER S AND W. AT ANY RATE LOOKS LIKE BEST CHCS FOR TSTMS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SWRN HALF OF THE FA AND WILL TAPER
POPS ACCORDINGLY. S/W GRDLY DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPR BLDG
THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS. AS A RESULT SLOW MOVING UPR
LOW GRDLY EVOLVES OVER SERN OK BY SUNDAY WITH WEAK SFC RDG PUSHING
INTO THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRDLY DIMINISH ACROSS NRN AND WRN
SECS OF THE FA AS THIS OCCURS. THIS FEATURE GRDLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN
AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH UPR RDG BEGINNING
TO BUILD EWD INTO THE AREA. AS A RESULT WARMER TMPS WITH LOW PRECIP
THREAT EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

OKC   86   67   86   65  / 40   40   30   30
HBR   89   68   86   66  / 60   50   40   30
SPS   90   69   87   68  / 60   70   40   40
GAG   87   63   84   60  / 60   50   40   30
PNC   85   65   86   64  / 20   20   20   20
DUA   89   70   86   68  / 60   50   50   50

FORECAST ID = 02

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-131700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ELK CITY TO NORMAN TO
MADILL.  A SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS MOST OF THE REST OF OKLAHOMA...
EXCEPT THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHEROKEE TO STILLWATER.

TIMING...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING.  MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON...
AND TO CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 3 AM.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MOST SEVERE
STORMS... ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.  HAIL AND WINDS OF THIS
NATURE CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND PLANTS... AND AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAINLY FROM
AROUND 3 PM UNTIL 3 AM.

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND MOIST AIR FEEDING INTO A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED BOUNDARY NEAR
THE RED RIVER HAS MAINTAINED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TODAY.  AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS THIS MORNING...
AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS... THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF WESTERN TEXAS.
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE IS LIKELY TO LINE UP WITH THE REMNANTS OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING STORMS.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT... AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
QUICKLY IN THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  WIND SHEAR PROFILES WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS DURING THE AFTERNOON... AND STORM COMPLEXES WITH
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE
STORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE NORMAN FORECAST
AREA BY SUNRISE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY JUN 14.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM THE SEVERE WEATHER DANGER...NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE... THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

CMS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
442 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0408 AM    6 N FREDERICK             OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   TILLMAN                        REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0417 AM    2 E MANITOU               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
06/13/03   TILLMAN                        SPOTTER REPORT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 AM    4 SE HOBART               OK   62 MPH WIND GUST
06/13/03   KIOWA                          MEASURED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

KT

OKZ037-038-044-131200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE...COTTON AND
TILLMAN COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND FREDERICK TO NEAR APACHE WILL
PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF COMANCHE...TILLMAN
COUNTIES AND WESTERN PARTS OF COTTON COUNTY AS THEY MOVE NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.