Severe Thunderstorm Warning 397, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

CURRENT AREA OF STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST TODAY. THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD TRAVERSE OK
TODAY WEST TO EAST AND SIT IN THE CENTRAL OK AREA BY EVENING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE COOL POOL AND THERE WILL
BE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.

AS THIS CIRCULAR SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OK AND
NORTH TX. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
FORECAST REMAINS RAIN FREE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...SO A WEAK WAVE TRAVELING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CAUSE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEATHER LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

FCSTID =    9
OKC   75  60  74  56 /  70  30   0   0
HBR   75  57  74  55 /  40  10   0   0
SPS   80  61  75  55 /  40   0   0   0
GAG   64  52  72  53 /  70  30   0   0
PNC   71  57  74  55 /  80  50  20   0
DUA   85  69  78  59 /  70  30  20   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...THE HIGH RISK IS GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT TO
CLINTON TO FREDERICK OKLAHOMA TO SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE MODERATE RISK
AREA IS EAST OF THE HIGH RISK AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEDFORD
TO HOLDENVILLE OKLAHOMA. THE MODERATE RISK INCLUDES THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA... AND THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS. THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES THE REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND PLAN FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WAS MOVING FROM ARIZONA INTO
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE... A
DRYLINE IS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TO NEAR THE DALLAS METROPLEX AND WEST INTO WEST
TEXAS. THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OVERNIGHT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA... LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP
MOVE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TOWARD THE DRYLINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE IN THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND WEST TEXAS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN MOVE OR DEVELOP INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS... MOST LIKELY BEGINNING THIS EVENING.

THE AIRMASS WILL BE HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT AS THE STRONG SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.  THE
FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF
TORNADOES.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 16.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...80 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS SHIFTING TO THE EASTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER A BRIEF
RESPITE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

OKZ045-160730-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
208 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF TERRAL AT 208 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JEFFERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

CJS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
242 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 AM    DUNCAN                    OK   63 MPH WIND GUST
05/16/03   STEPHENS                       REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          SPOTTER.

TY/SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
245 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0243 AM    ARCHER CITY               TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   ARCHER                         SPOTTER

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
248 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0243 AM    ARCHER CITY               TX   .88 INCH HAIL
05/16/03   ARCHER                         AMATEUR RADIO
                                          SPOTTER REPORT

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
309 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0240 AM    1 N RINGLING              OK   63 MPH WIND GUST
05/16/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET STATION

TY

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
315 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    PAULS VALLEY              OK   73 MPH WIND GUST
05/16/03   GARVIN                         MESONET REPORT

SBS