Tornado Warning 81, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
250 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

CURRENT AREA OF STORMS WILL LIKELY EXIT MOST OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING...BUT THE DRYLINE WILL REMAIN WEST TODAY. THE MAIN FEATURE
IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE THE STACKED LOW THAT SHOULD TRAVERSE OK
TODAY WEST TO EAST AND SIT IN THE CENTRAL OK AREA BY EVENING. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE COOL POOL AND THERE WILL
BE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.

AS THIS CIRCULAR SYSTEM SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...POPS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OK AND
NORTH TX. LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER RIDGE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE
FORECAST REMAINS RAIN FREE UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA...SO A WEAK WAVE TRAVELING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT CAUSE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A FRONT ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEATHER LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.

FCSTID =    9
OKC   75  60  74  56 /  70  30   0   0
HBR   75  57  74  55 /  40  10   0   0
SPS   80  61  75  55 /  40   0   0   0
GAG   64  52  72  53 /  70  30   0   0
PNC   71  57  74  55 /  80  50  20   0
DUA   85  69  78  59 /  70  30  20   0

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM SEMINOLE...TO
MADILL OKLAHOMA. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF THE MODERATE RISK
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MANCHESTER TO CLINTON TO WAURIKA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM EARLY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND
STATEMENTS AND PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER CADDO COUNTY OKLAHOMA WITH A WARM
FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO NEAR ADA AND ATOKA.
A DRYLINE EXTENDED NORTH TO SOUTH NEAR INTERSTATE 35 FROM NEAR
PURCELL TO MARIETTA. A COLD FRONT WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND OTHER SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND
EAST OF THE DRYLINE... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THE INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

FARTHER NORTH AND WEST... CONDITIONS AT LOW LEVELS ARE COOLER AND
DRIER... BUT COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
NEAR THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ARE STILL CREATING AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL... BUT AGAIN THE WIND SHEAR AT LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

BY LATE THIS EVENING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SATURDAY MAY 17.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
SATURDAY.

...SPEG.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
952 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 AM    3 N SHAWNEE               OK   62 MPH WIND GUST
05/16/03   POTTAWATOMIE                   REPORTED BY OKLAHOMA
                                          MESONET

0112 AM    1 W DAVIDSON              OK   WIND DAMAGE
05/16/03   TILLMAN                        POWER POLES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY EM

OKZ024-025-161700-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1145 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHERN CANADIAN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES.

A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORM WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
CANADIAN AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA COUNTIES AND WERE MOVING NORTHWEST
AROUND 15 MPH.  THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND NO WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

BT

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 16 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 AM    WESTOVER                  TX   60 MPH WIND GUST
05/16/03   BAYLOR                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER,
                                          ESTIMATED WIND SPEED

JP