Severe Thunderstorm Warning 356, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
1037 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING AND IT APPEARS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS
COMPLEX IS HELPING TO FOCUS MORE CONVECTION FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS.  WARM TEMPS
AT 7H ACROSS SOUTHWEST PARTS OF FA THIS MORNING SO THIS AREA
WILL LIKELY REMAINED CAPPED UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
MODELS SHOW COOLING ACROSS THIS AREA AS MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHWEST.  OTHERWISE WILL LIKELY SEE MORE SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS JUST TO OUR NORTH APPEAR TO BE FORMING IN WEAK 8H CONVERGENT
AREA.

SIX

**************************
318 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE
THRU THE MORNING HOURS UNTIL THE LL JET WEAKENS AND CONVECTION MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR AND MAKE ANY NEEDED
LAST MINUTE CHANGES TO POPS. LL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE FA... WITH LOW 70 DEWPTS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN OK. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR OR IN THE
AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS
AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK LATER TODAY.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES LATER THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THURS THRU
FRI ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPR LVL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST OF CALIFORNIA APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER THIS UPR LVL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO THE FA.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
OKC   82   63   80   61  /100   20   30   50
HBR   85   62   80   61  / 50   20   30   50
SPS   87   66   85   65  / 80   30   30   50
GAG   83   58   77   58  / 40   20   30   50
PNC   80   59   77   58  / 40   20   20   50
DUA   84   66   84   65  /100   30   30   50

FORECAST ID = 25

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-141700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
700 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH MORE ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THROUGH THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED TUESDAY NIGHT
CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
MORNING. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER THIS MORNING AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
TODAY. IN ADDITION...BOUNDARIES FROM THE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVER PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S. HOWEVER...WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL WORK TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  IF THE
CAP CAN BE OVERCOME SHEAR PROFILES AND INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 15.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1131 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1132 AM    FRANCIS                   OK   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/14/03   PONTOTOC                       REPORTED BY RETIRED NWS
                                          EMPLOYEE