Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
334 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

UPDATED TO ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR NW OK FROM 4 UNTIL 7 PM THIS
EVENING. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.
 MILLER

.OUN...
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING OKZ004-005-009-010.
TX...NONE.
****************************
219 PM CDT THUS MAY 8 2003

...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA DURING
THE NEXT 3-9 HOURS...

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW CONT TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN OVER WRN
KS/ERN CO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.. AND THERE IS SUBTLE EVIDENCE OF A
SECONDARY IMPULSE PUSHING EWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO. 18Z OUN SOUNDING
INDICATES THAT CAPPING IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ALONG
DRYLINE ACROSS MOST OF OKLAHOMA.  POTENT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS
EVIDENT WITH VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.. LOW LCL
HGHTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. IN ADDITION..THE HODOGRAPH
SHOWS SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE.. HILITED
BY A DISTINCT KINK IN THE HODOGRAPH AT ABOUT 1.5 KM AGL. THIS TYPE
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILE IN COMBINATION WITH ABOVE MENTIONED
THERMODYNAMICS HAS OFTEN BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ENVIRONMENTS
SUPPORTIVE OF LONG LIVED STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES.  EXPECT
INITIATION INVOF THE DRYLINE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY.  SVR THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE NITE AS STRONG UVVS CONT ALONG DRYLINE UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA.  LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT SWD INTO TEXAS
LATER THIS AFT/EVE.

INSTABILITY AXIS WILL RELOAD FRIDAY OVER THE SE ZONES.. AND THEN
EXPAND NWWD INTO REDEVELOPING WARM FRONTAL ZONE FRIDAY NITE.  HAVE
READJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING.  NEXT WAVE WILL EJECT
ONTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY.. BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY WITH THIS
WAVE LOOKS TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE OUN CWA ATTM. HOWEVER..STILL
LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS ALONG/SE OF I44 CORRIDOR AHEAD
OF DRYLINE/FRONT.  IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL RIDGING WILL FINALLY
BUILD SWD FAR ENUF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RESPITE
FROM STORMS..BUT TROPICAL BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WILL BE LURKING CLOSE
BY AND SHUD MOVE BACK NWD MONDAY/TUES AS LONG WAVE TROF RELOADS OVER
THE WRN CONUS.  WE WILL BRING SLGT CHC POPS BACK INTO THE SW ZONES
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONSET OF MOISTURE RETURN.. AND THEN
EXPAND/INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THRU MID WEEK.
MORE BOUTS OF SVR STORMS SEEM LIKELY AS SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AXIS
REMAINS SUPERIMPOSED UNDERNEATH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW.
 MILLER

OKC   64  89  67  84 /  60  20  20  30
HBR   59  91  64  88 /  10  20  20  20
SPS   66  94  68  92 /  50  30  20  30
GAG   51  89  57  82 /  10  30  30  10
PNC   64  85  67  82 /  60  20  40  20
DUA   71  88  72  88 /  60  20  20  40

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... WHILE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE HIGH RISK AREA IS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR... AND NORTH OF A PAULS VALLEY TO ADA LINE. THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA IS INCLUDED IN THE HIGH RISK AREA. BOUNDING THE HIGH
RISK AREA IS A MODERATE RISK AREA THAT EXTENDS ALONG AND EAST OF A
LINE FROM ENID  TO LAWTON... AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAWTON TO
MARIETTA... TO DURANT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... EAST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE... TO CACHE... TO ELECTRA TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...
EVENING... AND OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
SOME OF THE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES. VERY LARGE HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 80 MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THESE
STORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
BY MID AFTERNOON... THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR ALVA OKLAHOMA TO
JUST WEST OF WICHITA FALL TEXAS.  THE DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST... REACHING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONVERGE ON THE DRYLINE... PROVIDING A
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LIFT.  THIS... COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH
INSTABILITIES AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES... WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF MULTIPLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...
WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND.  MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD END
BY SUNRISE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 9.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...NEAR 100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...NEAR 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
STRONG WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
DRYLINE... ESPECIALLY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THE DAYS
WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE EAST OF I-35... AND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
FRIDAY.

GRAPHICAL OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN

CJS

OKZ027-082100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
347 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRADY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUSH SPRINGS
AT 347 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

JAMES

OKZ027-082115-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
406 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR GRADY COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF POCASSET AT
406 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING
AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS
LOCATED ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF POCASSET...ALSO MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT.

JAMES