Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
550 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

.UPDATE...WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING A LITTLE MORE
QUICKLY...WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
&&

*********PREVIOUS 407 AM DISCUSSION**************

.DISCUSSION...UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY INTO
MONDAY. SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.
WITH THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS.
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH AXIS OF UPPER
TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. RIDGING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL KEEP AREA DRY. RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY AS COOLER AIRMASS IS QUICKLY MODIFIED. &&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS NEXT 5 DAYS. WAVEWATCH III DATA USED
TO POPULATED DATABASE.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHES OF FOG FOR THE EARLY MORNING WITH EVAPORATIVE
RAIN FOG IN CT...LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND. THESE
IS MAINLY OUTSIDE THE TAFS EXCEPT FOR SWF AND ISP. EXPECT AREAS OF
LIFR IN THESE LOCATIONS.

THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LOTS OF STRATO-CU WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
A FEW TSTMS AS UPPER SHORTWAVE SEEN IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATES
EAST. EXPECT UPPER LIMIT OF THE MVFR RANGE FOR CIGS.

BASICALLY A VFR WEEK AHEAD.
&&

.HYDRO...CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH FORK OF LONG ISLAND CONTINUES AND
HAS LIKELY PRODUCED ROADWAY FLOODING ON ROUTE 27. ISSUED FFW AS
ACTIVITY BACK BUILT AND IS RELENTLESS. 88D ESTIMATES ARE NOW
REACHING INTO THE 4 AREA...SO EXPECT THAT THERE IS SOME SERIOUS
FLOODING ALONG MONTAUK HIGHWAY.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS/TSTMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE 1/4-1/2 INCH LOCALLY.
DRY REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&

***********END OF 407 AM DISCUSSION*************

.OKX...
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-180930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
425 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK
COUNTY NEW YORK...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NYZ081-170730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
237 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2003

AT 237 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
CONTINUES TO DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BEACHES OF
THE SOUTH FORK FROM EAST HAMPTON TO MONTAUK INCLUDING HITHER HILLS
STATE PARK. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS HAS
LIKELY PRODUCED ROAD FLOODING ALONG MONTAUK HIGHWAY BETWEEN
AMAGANSETT AND HITHER HILLS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOBSTER ROLL
RESTAURANT. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

JST