Severe Thunderstorm Warning 333, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
301 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

CLOUD TOP TEMPS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING WELL W OF OUR
AREA HAVE WARMED AND OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE THINNING OUT. ISOLATED
STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR E COUNTIES. TAD MORE ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOPED OVER S KY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TN UNTIL 8 PM.

LOOKING AT WHAT IS AVAILABLE IN AWIPS AT THIS TIME...NAMELY THE ETA
AND GFS 12Z RUNS...GFS FORECASTS WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH TO MOVE
TO TN/AL BORDER AREA AND INTO SE TN BY 12Z SUN. ETA MODEL KEEPS IT
OVER KY. LOOKING AT 18Z MSAS ANALYSIS...APPEARS ETA MODEL IS TOO
SLOW WITH SE MOVEMENT OF FRONT. I WILL FAVOR BRINGING FRONT S PER
THE GFS MODEL TO AL/TN BORDER OR AT LEAST S MIDDLE TN OVERNIGHT.

GFS LOWERS MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVERNIGHT...PROBABLY TOO MUCH
SO...BUT ONLY SMALL AMOUNT OF 500 MB VORTICITY ADVECTION SEEN...ITS
MAINLY CHANNELED VORTICITY. LITTLE OR NO WARM ADVECTION FORECAST BY
GFS OVERNIGHT AT BOTH 850 AND 700 MB LEVELS. IF GFS RIGHT...THERE
WILL BE LITTLE REASON FOR PRECIP LATER TONIGHT IN N. BUT WILL KEEP
SOME POPS IN S ALL NIGHT WITH FRONT REACHING THAT PART OF MID STATE
BY LATE TONIGHT.

NOT MENTIONING ANY PRECIP ACROSS THE N ON SUN AS IT APPEARS TOO DRY
AND NO CONTRIBUTION FROM VORTICITY OR WARM ADVETION TO INITIATE
PRECIP. IN S WILL CONTINUE A LOW POP WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER.

IN EXTENDED PART OF FORECAST...NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACH OF COLD FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT...AND
EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THU OR THU NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP AGAIN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AREA ONLY ON SAT ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THAT AREA...AND WHERE
MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER.

WITH NO NEW GUIDANCE...HAVE NOT CHANGED PREVIOUS FORECAST
TEMPERATURES MUCH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BNA 64/84/64/87 4111
CSV 61/80/61/83 4111

.BNA....NONE.

STEIGERWALDT

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-131030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WHILE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED TODAY AND TONIGHT
...THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS
LATER TODAY...WITH THE MAIN THREAT DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

07